Matchup model · Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 36.2 | 37.6 | 36 | 60% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.4 | 50.3 | 48.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 42.2 | 40.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 44 | 45.8 | 44 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 37.6 pts (range 31.9–43.4) vs a 36 line — a lean to clear it (60%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (52%), projected 118–118, ~236 total at 99.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 23.1 | 22 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 34.7 | 33.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 28.4 | 27.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 29.4 | 28.5 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Williams draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
Model lines Williams at 23.1 pts (range 19.5–26.6) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (52%), projected 118–118, ~236 total at 99.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.8 | 29.2 | 29 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 13.2 | 13.6 | 13 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 11.2 | 11.5 | 11 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 53.2 | 54.3 | 53 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 42 | 42.8 | 42 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 40 | 40.7 | 40 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Nikola Jokić draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Isaiah Hartenstein (strong defender, 78 Rim protection), Aday Mara secondary, with Alex Caruso as the low-man/help.
Injury swing: Chet Holmgren would normally take it; instead it falls to Isaiah Hartenstein (+0.3 pts). Model lines Jokić at 29.2 pts (range 24.7–33.7) vs a 29 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (52%), projected 118–118, ~236 total at 99.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.2 | 27.3 | 27 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 39.7 | 39.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.8 | 32 | 32 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 34.7 | 35 | 34.5 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jamal Murray draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
Model lines Murray at 27.3 pts (range 23.1–31.4) vs a 27 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (52%), projected 118–118, ~236 total at 99.5 pace.