Matchup model · Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 31.1 | 31.6 | 31 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 42 | 42.8 | 42 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 35.4 | 36.1 | 35.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 37.7 | 38.3 | 37.5 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 35.4 pts a night over his last 5 (+4.3 vs season). Head-to-head sample (illustrative): 30.1 pts on 49% over 6 games vs Peyton Watson. Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 31.6 pts (range 26.8–36.5) vs a 31 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +4.3 over his season pace.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (63%), projected 113–116, ~229 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.1 | 16.4 | 17 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.2 | 26.4 | 27 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 21.7 | 21 | 21.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 22.6 | 21.8 | 22.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Williams draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 13 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.1 vs season). Head-to-head sample (illustrative): 17.2 pts on 47% over 6 games vs Peyton Watson. Model lines Williams at 16.4 pts (range 13.7–19.1) vs a 17 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (63%), projected 113–116, ~229 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.7 | 28.3 | 27.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 12.9 | 13.1 | 13 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 51.3 | 52.3 | 51.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 41.4 | 40.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 38.4 | 39.2 | 38.5 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Nikola Jokić draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Isaiah Hartenstein (strong defender, 78 Rim protection), Jalen Williams secondary, with Alex Caruso as the low-man/help.
Head-to-head sample (illustrative): 28.4 pts on 56% over 9 games vs Isaiah Hartenstein. Injury swing: Chet Holmgren would normally take it; instead it falls to Isaiah Hartenstein (+2.1 pts). Model lines Jokić at 28.3 pts (range 23.9–32.6) vs a 27.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (63%), projected 116–113, ~229 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.4 | 22.2 | 25.5 | 19% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.9 | 33.8 | 37 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.8 | 26.6 | 30 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 32.5 | 29.4 | 32.5 | 26% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jamal Murray draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
Head-to-head sample (illustrative): 19.4 pts on 40% over 12 games vs Alex Caruso. Model lines Murray at 22.2 pts (range 18.8–25.6) vs a 25.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (19%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (63%), projected 116–113, ~229 total at 98.9 pace.