Matchup model · Thursday, November 19, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.2 | 19.3 | 19 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 24.3 | 24.3 | 24.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 22 | 22 | 22 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Zach LaVine draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
Model lines LaVine at 19.3 pts (range 16.3–22.2) vs a 19 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (61%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
DeMar DeRozan draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
Model lines DeRozan at 18.5 pts (range 15.6–21.3) vs a 18.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (61%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25 | 24.7 | 25 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.6 | 39.2 | 39.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 36.5 | 36.2 | 36.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.1 | 27.8 | 28 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Victor Wembanyama draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Domantas Sabonis (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Maxime Raynaud secondary, with Nique Clifford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wembanyama at 24.7 pts (range 21–28.5) vs a 25 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (61%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 28.6 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.8 | 24.7 | 25 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
De'Aaron Fox draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
Model lines Fox at 18.6 pts (range 15.7–21.4) vs a 18.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (61%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.2 pace.