Matchup model · Thursday, November 19, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.3 | 18.8 | 18.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.9 | 23.6 | 23 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 20.8 | 21.4 | 21 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 20.4 | 21 | 20.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Zach LaVine draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
Model lines LaVine at 18.8 pts (range 16–21.7) vs a 18.5 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (76%), projected 115–121, ~236 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.1 | 18.4 | 18 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 13 | 13.4 | 13 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 37.9 | 37 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.1 | 31.8 | 31 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 24 | 24.5 | 24 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Domantas Sabonis draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Victor Wembanyama (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Luke Kornet secondary, with Stephon Castle as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sabonis at 18.4 pts (range 15.6–21.3) vs a 18 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (76%), projected 115–121, ~236 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 29.6 | 28.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 58% | Over |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 46.4 | 44.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 40.9 | 42.7 | 41 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 31.8 | 33.3 | 32 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Victor Wembanyama draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Domantas Sabonis (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Maxime Raynaud secondary, with Nique Clifford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wembanyama at 29.6 pts (range 25.1–34.2) vs a 28.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (76%), projected 121–115, ~236 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.1 | 20.2 | 19 | 64% | Over |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 9.4 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 36.7 | 35 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 26.8 | 25.5 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.5 | 30 | 28.5 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Stephon Castle draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
Model lines Castle at 20.2 pts (range 17.1–23.3) vs a 19 line — a good chance to clear it (64%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (76%), projected 121–115, ~236 total at 98.9 pace.