Matchup model · Thursday, November 26, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.2 | 19 | 19 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 24.3 | 24.1 | 24.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 22 | 21.8 | 22 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 21.5 | 21.3 | 21.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Zach LaVine draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
Model lines LaVine at 19 pts (range 16.1–21.9) vs a 19 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (67%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.4 | 18.2 | 18.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 25.4 | 25.2 | 25.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 21.3 | 21.1 | 21.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 22.5 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
DeMar DeRozan draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
Model lines DeRozan at 18.2 pts (range 15.4–21) vs a 18.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (67%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.8 | 37.7 | 38 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.1 | 31 | 31 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 30.9 | 30.8 | 31 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Deni Avdija draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
Model lines Avdija at 24.2 pts (range 20.5–27.9) vs a 24 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (67%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.8 | 20.8 | 21 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 42% | Under |
| Assists | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.7 | 27.6 | 27.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.1 | 25.1 | 25 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Shaedon Sharpe draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sharpe at 20.8 pts (range 17.6–24) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (67%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.2 pace.