Matchup model · Thursday, November 26, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.3 | 18.9 | 18.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.9 | 23.7 | 23 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 20.8 | 21.5 | 21 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 20.4 | 21.1 | 20.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Zach LaVine draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
Model lines LaVine at 18.9 pts (range 16–21.8) vs a 18.5 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (76%), projected 117–123, ~240 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.1 | 18.6 | 18 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 13 | 13.5 | 13 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 38.2 | 37 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.1 | 32.1 | 31 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 24 | 24.8 | 24 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Domantas Sabonis draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Donovan Clingan (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Yang Hansen secondary, with Jrue Holiday as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sabonis at 18.6 pts (range 15.8–21.5) vs a 18 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (76%), projected 117–123, ~240 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.9 | 31.7 | 30 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 7.3 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 8.4 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.6 | 48.1 | 45.5 | 65% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 37.2 | 39.3 | 37 | 65% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 38.3 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Deni Avdija draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
Model lines Avdija at 31.7 pts (range 26.8–36.5) vs a 30 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (76%), projected 123–117, ~240 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.4 | 26.9 | 25.5 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 63% | Over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 35.3 | 33.5 | 64% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 30.1 | 31.8 | 30 | 65% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.7 | 30.4 | 28.5 | 65% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Shaedon Sharpe draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sharpe at 26.9 pts (range 22.8–31) vs a 25.5 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (76%), projected 123–117, ~240 total at 99.3 pace.