Matchup model · Saturday, November 14, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 25.8 | 26 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.3 | 36.1 | 36.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.5 | 31.3 | 31.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 30.8 | 30.6 | 31 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Kevin Durant draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Durant at 25.8 pts (range 21.9–29.8) vs a 26 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Model favors Golden State Warriors (59%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 8.9 | 8.9 | 9 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.5 | 35.4 | 35.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.3 | 29.2 | 29.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.6 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 50% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Alperen Sengun draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Al Horford (strong defender, 80 Rim protection), Kristaps Porzingis secondary, with De'Anthony Melton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sengun at 20.3 pts (range 17.2–23.4) vs a 20.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Model favors Golden State Warriors (59%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.6 | 26.3 | 26.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 34.6 | 35 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.2 | 29.9 | 30 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.3 | 31 | 31.5 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Stephen Curry draws Houston Rockets's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
Model lines Curry at 26.3 pts (range 22.3–30.3) vs a 26.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (59%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 19.8 | 20 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.5 | 30.2 | 30.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.6 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.9 | 24.7 | 25 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jimmy Butler draws Houston Rockets's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
Model lines Butler at 19.8 pts (range 16.8–22.8) vs a 20 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (59%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.