Matchup model · Saturday, November 14, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 22 | 22 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 35.6 | 36 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.6 | 30.4 | 30.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.4 | 27.2 | 27.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Paolo Banchero draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Banchero at 22 pts (range 18.7–25.4) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Model favors New York Knicks (61%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.6 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.1 | 28.9 | 29 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.8 | 25.6 | 26 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.9 | 23.7 | 24 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Franz Wagner draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wagner at 20.5 pts (range 17.3–23.6) vs a 20.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Model favors New York Knicks (61%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 25.8 | 26 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.1 | 35.9 | 36 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.3 | 29.1 | 29.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 32.8 | 32.6 | 33 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brunson at 25.8 pts (range 21.9–29.8) vs a 26 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors New York Knicks (61%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.1 | 20 | 20 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.9 | 11.9 | 12 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3 | 3 | 3 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35 | 34.8 | 35 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 32 | 31.9 | 32 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.1 | 23 | 23 | 50% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Wendell Carter Jr. (strong defender, 83 Rim protection), Goga Bitadze secondary, with Jalen Suggs as the low-man/help.
Model lines Towns at 20 pts (range 16.9–23) vs a 20 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors New York Knicks (61%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.8 pace.