Matchup model · Saturday, November 14, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.8 | 23.3 | 23 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 8.8 | 9 | 9 | 50% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 37.9 | 37 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.6 | 32.3 | 31.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 28.9 | 28 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Paolo Banchero draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Banchero at 23.3 pts (range 19.7–26.9) vs a 23 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (64%), projected 115–119, ~234 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.1 | 22.6 | 22 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4 | 4.1 | 4 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.5 | 32.2 | 31.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.5 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 26.1 | 26.7 | 26 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Franz Wagner draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wagner at 22.6 pts (range 19.1–26.1) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (64%), projected 115–119, ~234 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 27.5 | 27 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.2 | 38.2 | 37 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 30.1 | 30.9 | 30 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 33.9 | 34.8 | 34 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brunson at 27.5 pts (range 23.3–31.7) vs a 27 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (64%), projected 119–115, ~234 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 20.7 | 20 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 36.8 | 36 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 33.7 | 33 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 23.2 | 23.8 | 23 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Wendell Carter Jr. (strong defender, 83 Rim protection), Goga Bitadze secondary, with Jalen Suggs as the low-man/help.
Model lines Towns at 20.7 pts (range 17.6–23.9) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (64%), projected 119–115, ~234 total at 98.4 pace.