Matchup model · Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.6 | 29.7 | 28.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4 | 4.1 | 4 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 6.8 | 7 | 7 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.4 | 40.8 | 39.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 33.8 | 32.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 35.4 | 36.7 | 35.5 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Devin Booker draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
Model lines Booker at 29.7 pts (range 25.1–34.2) vs a 28.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (65%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 24.2 | 23.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.1 | 2 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.1 | 30.1 | 29 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 28.1 | 27 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.3 | 26.2 | 25.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Dillon Brooks draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brooks at 24.2 pts (range 20.5–27.9) vs a 23.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (65%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 32.4 | 33.3 | 32.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 8 | 8 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.5 | 45.8 | 44.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 36.7 | 37.8 | 36.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 40.2 | 41.4 | 40 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Tyrese Maxey draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Mark Williams as the low-man/help.
Model lines Maxey at 33.3 pts (range 28.2–38.4) vs a 32.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (65%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.7 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 41.7 | 42.8 | 41.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 37.3 | 38.3 | 37.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 34.1 | 35 | 34 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Joel Embiid draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Mark Williams (strong defender, 84 Rim protection), Khaman Maluach secondary, with Jordan Goodwin as the low-man/help.
Model lines Embiid at 30.5 pts (range 25.8–35.1) vs a 29.5 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (65%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 98.4 pace.