Matchup model · Tuesday, November 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.4 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.5 | 31.6 | 31.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 23.2 | 23.3 | 23 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Davis draws Atlanta Hawks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Onyeka Okongwu (strong defender, 78 Rim protection), Jalen Johnson secondary, with Dyson Daniels as the low-man/help.
Model lines Davis at 20.5 pts (range 17.3–23.6) vs a 20.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (66%), projected 111–115, ~226 total at 97.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.9 | 17.7 | 18 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 2 | 2 | 2 | 50% | Lean over |
| Assists | 8 | 8 | 8 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 27.8 | 28 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 19.9 | 19.8 | 20 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.9 | 25.8 | 26 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Trae Young draws Atlanta Hawks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Nickeil Alexander-Walker secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
Model lines Young at 17.7 pts (range 15–20.5) vs a 18 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (66%), projected 111–115, ~226 total at 97.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.5 | 22.6 | 22.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.9 | 8 | 8 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 40.7 | 40.9 | 40.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 33 | 33 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 30.4 | 30.6 | 30.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Johnson draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Alex Sarr as the low-man/help.
Model lines Johnson at 22.6 pts (range 19.2–26.1) vs a 22.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (66%), projected 115–111, ~226 total at 97.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.8 | 20.9 | 21 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 28.1 | 28 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.5 | 24.6 | 24.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Alex Sarr as the low-man/help.
Model lines Alexander-Walker at 20.9 pts (range 17.7–24.1) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (66%), projected 115–111, ~226 total at 97.3 pace.