Matchup model · Tuesday, November 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.6 | 26.3 | 25.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 11.7 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 40 | 41.5 | 40 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 28.3 | 29.2 | 28.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 37.3 | 38.7 | 37.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Trae Young draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
Model lines Young at 26.3 pts (range 22.3–30.4) vs a 25.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (73%), projected 119–124, ~243 total at 100.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.3 | 26.3 | 25.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 12.1 | 12.7 | 12 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 40.9 | 42.7 | 41 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 37.4 | 39 | 37.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.8 | 30 | 29 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Davis draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Onyeka Okongwu (strong defender, 78 Rim protection), Jalen Johnson secondary, with Dyson Daniels as the low-man/help.
Model lines Davis at 26.3 pts (range 22.3–30.4) vs a 25.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (73%), projected 119–124, ~243 total at 100.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27 | 28.8 | 27 | 64% | Over |
| Rebounds | 11.6 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 62% | Over |
| Assists | 9.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.2 | 51.4 | 48 | 68% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 38.6 | 41.1 | 38.5 | 66% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 36.6 | 39 | 36.5 | 66% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Johnson draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Johnson at 28.8 pts (range 24.4–33.2) vs a 27 line — a good chance to clear it (64%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (73%), projected 124–119, ~243 total at 100.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.1 | 26.8 | 25 | 65% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 4 | 4 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4 | 66% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.1 | 35.3 | 33 | 68% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 28.9 | 30.8 | 29 | 65% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 29.3 | 31.2 | 29.5 | 64% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Alexander-Walker at 26.8 pts (range 22.7–30.9) vs a 25 line — a good chance to clear it (65%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (73%), projected 124–119, ~243 total at 100.9 pace.