Matchup model · Friday, November 20, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.6 | 29.4 | 28.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4 | 4.1 | 4 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 6.8 | 7 | 7 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.4 | 40.6 | 39.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 33.5 | 32.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 35.4 | 36.5 | 35.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Devin Booker draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
Model lines Booker at 29.4 pts (range 24.9–33.9) vs a 28.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (66%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 98.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 24 | 23.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.1 | 2 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.1 | 30 | 29 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 27.9 | 27 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.3 | 26 | 25.5 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Dillon Brooks draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brooks at 24 pts (range 20.3–27.6) vs a 23.5 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (66%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 98.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.9 | 30.8 | 30 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Assists | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.6 | 47 | 45.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 37.2 | 38.3 | 37 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 38.3 | 39.5 | 38.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Deni Avdija draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Mark Williams as the low-man/help.
Model lines Avdija at 30.8 pts (range 26.1–35.5) vs a 30 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (66%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 98.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.4 | 26.2 | 25.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 34.4 | 33.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 30.1 | 31 | 30 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.7 | 29.6 | 28.5 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Shaedon Sharpe draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Mark Williams as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sharpe at 26.2 pts (range 22.2–30.2) vs a 25.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (66%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 98.7 pace.