Matchup model · Friday, November 20, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.1 | 25.9 | 26 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6 | 6 | 6 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36 | 35.8 | 36 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 30 | 29.8 | 30 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 32.1 | 31.9 | 32 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Devin Booker draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
Model lines Booker at 25.9 pts (range 21.9–29.9) vs a 26 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (65%), projected 112–115, ~227 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 20.1 | 20 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 25.6 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 23.8 | 23.6 | 24 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 22 | 21.8 | 22 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Dillon Brooks draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brooks at 20.1 pts (range 17–23.1) vs a 20 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (65%), projected 112–115, ~227 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.2 | 24.1 | 24 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.8 | 37.7 | 38 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.1 | 31 | 31 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 30.9 | 30.8 | 31 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Deni Avdija draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Mark Williams as the low-man/help.
Model lines Avdija at 24.1 pts (range 20.4–27.8) vs a 24 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (65%), projected 115–112, ~227 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.8 | 20.7 | 21 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.7 | 27.6 | 27.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.1 | 25 | 25 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 23.4 | 23.3 | 23.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Shaedon Sharpe draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Mark Williams as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sharpe at 20.7 pts (range 17.6–23.9) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (65%), projected 115–112, ~227 total at 96.5 pace.