Matchup model · Tuesday, November 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 26.7 | 27 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.2 | 37.2 | 37 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 30.1 | 30 | 30 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 33.9 | 33.9 | 34 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brunson at 26.7 pts (range 22.6–30.7) vs a 27 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (72%), projected 113–118, ~231 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 20.1 | 20 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3 | 3 | 3 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 36 | 36 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 32.9 | 33 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Chet Holmgren (elite stopper, 92 Rim protection), Isaiah Hartenstein secondary, with Alex Caruso as the low-man/help.
Model lines Towns at 20.1 pts (range 17–23.2) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (72%), projected 113–118, ~231 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 36.2 | 37 | 36 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Assists | 7.8 | 8 | 8 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.4 | 49.5 | 48.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 41.5 | 40.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 44 | 45 | 44 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 37 pts (range 31.4–42.7) vs a 36 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (72%), projected 118–113, ~231 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 22.7 | 22 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 34.2 | 33.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 27.9 | 27.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 29 | 28.5 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Williams draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Williams at 22.7 pts (range 19.2–26.2) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (72%), projected 118–113, ~231 total at 98.4 pace.