Matchup model · Tuesday, November 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 25.4 | 26 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.1 | 35.5 | 36 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.3 | 28.7 | 29.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 32.8 | 32.2 | 33 | 44% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brunson at 25.4 pts (range 21.5–29.3) vs a 26 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (70%), projected 110–115, ~225 total at 97.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.1 | 19.7 | 20 | 46% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.9 | 11.9 | 12 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3 | 3 | 3 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35 | 34.6 | 35 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 32 | 31.6 | 32 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.1 | 22.7 | 23 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Chet Holmgren (elite stopper, 92 Rim protection), Isaiah Hartenstein secondary, with Alex Caruso as the low-man/help.
Model lines Towns at 19.7 pts (range 16.7–22.7) vs a 20 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (46%).
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (70%), projected 110–115, ~225 total at 97.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 31.1 | 32 | 31 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 42 | 43 | 42 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 35.4 | 36.4 | 35.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 37.7 | 38.6 | 37.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 35.4 pts a night over his last 5 (+4.3 vs season). Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 32 pts (range 27.1–36.9) vs a 31 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +4.3 over his season pace.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (70%), projected 115–110, ~225 total at 97.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.1 | 17 | 17 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 8.9 | 8.9 | 9 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.7 | 27.6 | 27.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 26 | 25.9 | 26 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 18.8 | 18.7 | 19 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Chet Holmgren draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Karl-Anthony Towns (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Josh Hart secondary, with Miles McBride as the low-man/help.
Model lines Holmgren at 17 pts (range 14.3–19.7) vs a 17 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (70%), projected 115–110, ~225 total at 97.3 pace.