Matchup model · Friday, November 20, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 33.5 | 33.6 | 33.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 49.5 | 49.6 | 49.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 41.2 | 41.3 | 41 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 41.8 | 41.9 | 42 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Luka Doncic draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
Model lines Doncic at 33.6 pts (range 28.5–38.8) vs a 33.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (59%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 23.4 | 23.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.5 | 33.6 | 33.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 28 | 28.1 | 28 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.8 | 28.9 | 29 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Austin Reaves draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
Model lines Reaves at 23.4 pts (range 19.8–27) vs a 23.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (59%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.9 | 30.8 | 31 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 22.8 | 22.8 | 23 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.6 | 27.6 | 27.5 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Ja Morant draws Los Angeles Lakers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Marcus Smart (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Austin Reaves secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Morant at 19.5 pts (range 16.5–22.4) vs a 19.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (59%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 14 | 14 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 16.9 | 16.9 | 17 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Santi Aldama draws Los Angeles Lakers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Marcus Smart (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Austin Reaves secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Aldama at 14 pts (range 11.3–16.7) vs a 14 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (59%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.