Matchup model · Saturday, November 21, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 23.8 | 24 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.4 | 34.2 | 34.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.6 | 30.4 | 30.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.8 | 27.6 | 28 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Pascal Siakam draws LA Clippers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kris Dunn (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Kawhi Leonard secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
Model lines Siakam at 23.8 pts (range 20.1–27.4) vs a 24 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Model favors LA Clippers (60%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.8 | 17.6 | 18 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 25.5 | 25.3 | 25.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 23.2 | 23 | 23 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 20.1 | 19.9 | 20 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Bennedict Mathurin draws LA Clippers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kris Dunn (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Kawhi Leonard secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
Model lines Mathurin at 17.6 pts (range 14.9–20.3) vs a 18 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors LA Clippers (60%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.9 | 27.9 | 28 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.9 | 37.9 | 38 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Kawhi Leonard draws Indiana Pacers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Jay Huff as the low-man/help.
Model lines Leonard at 27.9 pts (range 23.6–32.2) vs a 28 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors LA Clippers (60%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.9 | 19.9 | 20 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 28.6 | 28.6 | 28.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Darius Garland draws Indiana Pacers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Jay Huff as the low-man/help.
Model lines Garland at 19.9 pts (range 16.9–23) vs a 20 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors LA Clippers (60%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.6 pace.