Matchup model · Tuesday, November 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 23.7 | 23.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 59% | Over |
| Assists | 4.9 | 5 | 5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.9 | 32.5 | 32 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27 | 27.5 | 27 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 28.7 | 28 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Stephen Curry draws Houston Rockets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Fred VanVleet secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
Model lines Curry at 23.7 pts (range 20.1–27.3) vs a 23.5 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (70%), projected 115–119, ~234 total at 98.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.9 | 19.2 | 19 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.5 | 28 | 27.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.2 | 25.7 | 25 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 21.2 | 21.6 | 21 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Kristaps Porzingis draws Houston Rockets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alperen Sengun (strong defender, 85 Rim protection), Steven Adams secondary, with Amen Thompson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Porzingis at 19.2 pts (range 16.3–22.2) vs a 19 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (70%), projected 115–119, ~234 total at 98.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.3 | 25 | 24.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5 | 5.1 | 5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.9 | 34.8 | 34 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 29.3 | 30.1 | 29.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.9 | 29.7 | 29 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Kevin Durant draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Durant at 25 pts (range 21.2–28.8) vs a 24.5 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (70%), projected 119–115, ~234 total at 98.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.3 | 23 | 22.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Assists | 7 | 7.2 | 7 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.6 | 39.7 | 38.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.6 | 32.5 | 31.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 29.3 | 30.2 | 29.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Alperen Sengun draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Al Horford (strong defender, 80 Rim protection), Kristaps Porzingis secondary, with De'Anthony Melton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sengun at 23 pts (range 19.5–26.5) vs a 22.5 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (70%), projected 119–115, ~234 total at 98.1 pace.