Matchup model · Thursday, November 19, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.9 | 28 | 28 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.1 | 38.3 | 38 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.4 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 33.6 | 33.7 | 33.5 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Donovan Mitchell draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Mitchell at 28 pts (range 23.8–32.3) vs a 28 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (58%), projected 112–113, ~225 total at 96.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.5 | 20.6 | 20.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33 | 33.1 | 33 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 28.3 | 28 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
James Harden draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Harden at 20.6 pts (range 17.5–23.8) vs a 20.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (58%), projected 112–113, ~225 total at 96.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 21 | 21 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.2 | 32.3 | 32 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.7 | 27.8 | 27.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.5 | 25.6 | 25.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Cooper Flagg draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Flagg at 21 pts (range 17.8–24.3) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (58%), projected 113–112, ~225 total at 96.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 19.9 | 19.9 | 20 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Naji Marshall draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Marshall at 15.2 pts (range 12.5–17.9) vs a 15 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (58%), projected 113–112, ~225 total at 96.8 pace.