Matchup model · Thursday, November 19, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.7 | 29.1 | 27.5 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.7 | 6 | 5.5 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.8 | 39.6 | 38 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.1 | 33.7 | 32 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 33.4 | 35 | 33.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Donovan Mitchell draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Mitchell at 29.1 pts (range 24.6–33.5) vs a 27.5 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (60%), projected 118–120, ~238 total at 100 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 5 | 5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.2 | 34.8 | 33 | 65% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 26.5 | 25.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 29.8 | 28.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
James Harden draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Harden at 21.5 pts (range 18.2–24.8) vs a 20.5 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (60%), projected 118–120, ~238 total at 100 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.4 | 24.4 | 23.5 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.3 | 33.7 | 32.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 28 | 29.2 | 28 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 27.7 | 28.9 | 27.5 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Kyrie Irving draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Irving at 24.4 pts (range 20.6–28.1) vs a 23.5 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (60%), projected 120–118, ~238 total at 100 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 21.9 | 21 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 7 | 6.5 | 63% | Over |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.2 | 33.6 | 32 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.7 | 28.9 | 27.5 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.5 | 26.6 | 25.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Cooper Flagg draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Flagg at 21.9 pts (range 18.5–25.2) vs a 21 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (60%), projected 120–118, ~238 total at 100 pace.