Matchup model · Wednesday, November 25, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 20.3 | 20 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 28.4 | 28.6 | 28.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.1 | 25.3 | 25 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 23.5 | 23.7 | 23.5 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Miller draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
Model lines Miller at 20.3 pts (range 17.2–23.5) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (55%), projected 112–113, ~225 total at 96.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.1 | 20.2 | 20 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32 | 32.2 | 32 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 24.9 | 25.1 | 25 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 27.2 | 27.4 | 27 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
LaMelo Ball draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
Model lines Ball at 20.2 pts (range 17.1–23.3) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (55%), projected 112–113, ~225 total at 96.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3 | 3 | 3 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.3 | 31.3 | 31.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.2 | 27.2 | 27 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Michael Porter Jr. draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Green secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
Model lines Jr. at 24.2 pts (range 20.5–27.9) vs a 24 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (55%), projected 113–112, ~225 total at 96.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.5 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Cam Thomas draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Green secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
Model lines Thomas at 15.6 pts (range 12.9–18.3) vs a 15.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (55%), projected 113–112, ~225 total at 96.8 pace.