Matchup model · Wednesday, November 25, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.2 | 25.3 | 24 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.7 | 35 | 33.5 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 29.6 | 30.8 | 29.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Miller draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
Model lines Miller at 25.3 pts (range 21.4–29.1) vs a 24 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (54%), projected 116–117, ~233 total at 97.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.4 | 23.4 | 22.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32 | 33.2 | 32 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 26.5 | 27.6 | 26.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 27.9 | 29 | 28 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Coby White draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
Model lines White at 23.4 pts (range 19.8–27) vs a 22.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (54%), projected 116–117, ~233 total at 97.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.8 | 28.5 | 28 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 7.7 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 40.1 | 39.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 35.5 | 36.3 | 35.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 31.6 | 32.3 | 31.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Michael Porter Jr. draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Royce O'Neale secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
Model lines Jr. at 28.5 pts (range 24.1–32.8) vs a 28 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (54%), projected 117–116, ~233 total at 97.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.1 | 20.6 | 20 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5 | 5.1 | 5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 31.9 | 31 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 26.2 | 26.8 | 26 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.1 | 25.7 | 25 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Julius Randle draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Royce O'Neale secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
Model lines Randle at 20.6 pts (range 17.4–23.7) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (54%), projected 117–116, ~233 total at 97.3 pace.