Matchup model · Friday, November 27, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.8 | 30.1 | 29 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 13.2 | 13.8 | 13 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 11.2 | 11.8 | 11 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 53.2 | 55.7 | 53 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 42 | 43.9 | 42 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 40 | 41.9 | 40 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Nikola Jokić draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Daniel Gafford (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Dereck Lively II secondary, with Max Christie as the low-man/help.
Model lines Jokić at 30.1 pts (range 25.5–34.7) vs a 29 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (57%), projected 120–121, ~241 total at 100.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.2 | 28.5 | 27 | 63% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 41.2 | 39.5 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.8 | 33.4 | 32 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 34.7 | 36.4 | 34.5 | 63% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jamal Murray draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Murray at 28.5 pts (range 24.2–32.9) vs a 27 line — a good chance to clear it (63%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (57%), projected 120–121, ~241 total at 100.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.4 | 24.4 | 23.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.3 | 33.7 | 32.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 28 | 29.2 | 28 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 27.7 | 28.9 | 27.5 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Kyrie Irving draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
Model lines Irving at 24.4 pts (range 20.7–28.1) vs a 23.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (57%), projected 121–120, ~241 total at 100.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 21.9 | 21 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 7 | 6.5 | 63% | Over |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.2 | 33.6 | 32 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.7 | 28.9 | 27.5 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.5 | 26.6 | 25.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Cooper Flagg draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
Model lines Flagg at 21.9 pts (range 18.5–25.2) vs a 21 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (57%), projected 121–120, ~241 total at 100.1 pace.