Matchup model · Friday, November 27, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.7 | 28.3 | 27.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 12.9 | 13.1 | 13 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 51.3 | 52.4 | 51.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 41.5 | 40.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 38.4 | 39.3 | 38.5 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Nikola Jokić draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Daniel Gafford (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Dereck Lively II secondary, with Max Christie as the low-man/help.
Model lines Jokić at 28.3 pts (range 24–32.7) vs a 27.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (50%), projected 114–114, ~228 total at 98.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.4 | 25.6 | 25.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.9 | 37.2 | 37 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 29.8 | 30 | 30 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 32.5 | 32.8 | 32.5 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jamal Murray draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Murray at 25.6 pts (range 21.6–29.5) vs a 25.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (50%), projected 114–114, ~228 total at 98.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 21 | 21 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 58% | Over |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.2 | 32.3 | 32 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.7 | 27.8 | 27.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Cooper Flagg draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
Model lines Flagg at 21 pts (range 17.8–24.2) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (50%), projected 114–114, ~228 total at 98.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 59% | Over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.2 | 23.3 | 23 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 19.9 | 20 | 20 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Naji Marshall draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
Model lines Marshall at 15.2 pts (range 12.5–17.9) vs a 15 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (50%), projected 114–114, ~228 total at 98.2 pace.