Matchup model · Tuesday, November 24, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.7 | 25.2 | 24.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.9 | 4 | 4 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.2 | 36 | 35 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.3 | 32 | 31.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 29.2 | 28.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Pascal Siakam draws Houston Rockets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Fred VanVleet secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
Model lines Siakam at 25.2 pts (range 21.3–29.1) vs a 24.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (72%), projected 116–121, ~237 total at 98.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.4 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 9 | 9.2 | 9 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.4 | 32.1 | 31.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.4 | 22.9 | 22.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 29 | 28.5 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Andrew Nembhard draws Houston Rockets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Fred VanVleet secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
Model lines Nembhard at 19.8 pts (range 16.8–22.8) vs a 19.5 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (72%), projected 116–121, ~237 total at 98.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.3 | 25.4 | 24.5 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5 | 5.2 | 5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.9 | 35.3 | 34 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 29.3 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.9 | 30.2 | 29 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Kevin Durant draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
Model lines Durant at 25.4 pts (range 21.5–29.3) vs a 24.5 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (72%), projected 121–116, ~237 total at 98.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.3 | 23.2 | 22.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 7 | 7.3 | 7 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.6 | 40.1 | 38.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.6 | 32.8 | 31.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 29.3 | 30.4 | 29.5 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Alperen Sengun draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Ivica Zubac (strong defender, 87 Rim protection), Jay Huff secondary, with Andrew Nembhard as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sengun at 23.2 pts (range 19.6–26.7) vs a 22.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (72%), projected 121–116, ~237 total at 98.6 pace.