Matchup model · Tuesday, November 24, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 23.8 | 24 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.4 | 34.1 | 34.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.6 | 30.3 | 30.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.8 | 27.5 | 28 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Pascal Siakam draws Houston Rockets's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
Model lines Siakam at 23.8 pts (range 20.1–27.4) vs a 24 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Model favors Houston Rockets (63%), projected 112–114, ~226 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.8 | 17.6 | 18 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 25.5 | 25.3 | 25.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 23.2 | 23 | 23 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 20.1 | 19.9 | 20 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Bennedict Mathurin draws Houston Rockets's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
Model lines Mathurin at 17.6 pts (range 14.9–20.3) vs a 18 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Houston Rockets (63%), projected 112–114, ~226 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 26 | 26 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Assists | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 30.8 | 30.8 | 31 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Kevin Durant draws Indiana Pacers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Jay Huff as the low-man/help.
Model lines Durant at 26 pts (range 22–30) vs a 26 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Houston Rockets (63%), projected 114–112, ~226 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 8.9 | 8.9 | 9 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Alperen Sengun draws Indiana Pacers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jay Huff (strong defender, 79 Rim protection), Pascal Siakam secondary, with Andrew Nembhard as the low-man/help.
Model lines Sengun at 20.4 pts (range 17.3–23.5) vs a 20.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Houston Rockets (63%), projected 114–112, ~226 total at 96.6 pace.