Matchup model · Wednesday, November 25, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 33.5 | 33.2 | 33.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 49.5 | 49.1 | 49.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 41.2 | 40.9 | 41 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 41.8 | 41.4 | 42 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Luka Doncic draws LA Clippers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kris Dunn (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Kawhi Leonard secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
Model lines Doncic at 33.2 pts (range 28.1–38.3) vs a 33.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Model favors LA Clippers (64%), projected 110–114, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 23.1 | 23.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.5 | 33.2 | 33.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 28 | 27.8 | 28 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.8 | 28.6 | 29 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Austin Reaves draws LA Clippers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kris Dunn (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Kawhi Leonard secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
Model lines Reaves at 23.1 pts (range 19.6–26.6) vs a 23.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (46%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors LA Clippers (64%), projected 110–114, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.9 | 27.8 | 28 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.9 | 37.8 | 38 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 34.3 | 34.2 | 34.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.5 | 31.4 | 31.5 | 50% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Kawhi Leonard draws Los Angeles Lakers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Marcus Smart (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Austin Reaves secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Leonard at 27.8 pts (range 23.6–32.1) vs a 28 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors LA Clippers (64%), projected 114–110, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.9 | 19.9 | 20 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 28.6 | 28.6 | 28.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Darius Garland draws Los Angeles Lakers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Marcus Smart (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Austin Reaves secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Garland at 19.9 pts (range 16.8–22.9) vs a 20 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors LA Clippers (64%), projected 114–110, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.