Matchup model · Wednesday, November 25, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.9 | 41.3 | 40 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 7.9 | 8 | 8 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 57.4 | 59 | 57.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 47.8 | 49.2 | 48 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 49.5 | 51 | 49.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Luka Doncic draws LA Clippers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Model lines Doncic at 41.3 pts (range 35–47.6) vs a 40 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors LA Clippers (50%), projected 115–114, ~229 total at 95.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.8 | 25.7 | 25 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.1 | 37.1 | 36 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 29.6 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 31.3 | 32.2 | 31.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Austin Reaves draws LA Clippers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Model lines Reaves at 25.7 pts (range 21.7–29.6) vs a 25 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors LA Clippers (50%), projected 115–114, ~229 total at 95.9 pace.