Matchup model · Thursday, November 26, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.6 | 30.3 | 28.5 | 64% | Over |
| Rebounds | 10.7 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 63% | Over |
| Assists | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.2 | 47.9 | 45 | 67% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 39.3 | 41.6 | 39.5 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 34.5 | 36.6 | 34.5 | 64% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Giannis Antetokounmpo draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
Model lines Antetokounmpo at 30.3 pts (range 25.7–34.9) vs a 28.5 line — a good chance to clear it (64%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (55%), projected 120–118, ~238 total at 100.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.7 | 25 | 23.5 | 63% | Over |
| Rebounds | 10.6 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 64% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38 | 40.1 | 38 | 64% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 34.3 | 36.2 | 34.5 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 27.4 | 28.9 | 27.5 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Bam Adebayo draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Zach Edey (strong defender, 87 Rim protection), Isaiah Stewart secondary, with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as the low-man/help.
Model lines Adebayo at 25 pts (range 21.1–28.8) vs a 23.5 line — a good chance to clear it (63%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (55%), projected 120–118, ~238 total at 100.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.8 | 18.5 | 18 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.1 | 2 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.1 | 24.1 | 23 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 21.1 | 22 | 21 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 19.8 | 20.6 | 20 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jerami Grant draws Miami Heat's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Davion Mitchell (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Giannis Antetokounmpo secondary, with Bam Adebayo as the low-man/help.
Model lines Grant at 18.5 pts (range 15.7–21.3) vs a 18 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (55%), projected 118–120, ~238 total at 100.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.6 | 16.2 | 15.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 1.9 | 2 | 2 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.1 | 23 | 22 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 20.2 | 21 | 20 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 17.5 | 18.2 | 17.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Cameron Boozer draws Miami Heat's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Davion Mitchell (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Giannis Antetokounmpo secondary, with Bam Adebayo as the low-man/help.
Model lines Boozer at 16.2 pts (range 13.5–18.9) vs a 15.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (55%), projected 118–120, ~238 total at 100.7 pace.