Matchup model · Thursday, November 26, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.6 | 27.7 | 27.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 9.8 | 9.8 | 10 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 42.8 | 42.9 | 43 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.4 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 33 | 33.1 | 33 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Giannis Antetokounmpo draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
Model lines Antetokounmpo at 27.7 pts (range 23.5–32) vs a 27.5 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (53%), projected 112–113, ~225 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.7 | 27.8 | 27.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.2 | 25.3 | 25 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Norman Powell draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
Model lines Powell at 21.8 pts (range 18.5–25.1) vs a 21.5 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (53%), projected 112–113, ~225 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.5 | 19.4 | 19.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.9 | 30.7 | 31 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 22.8 | 22.7 | 23 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.6 | 27.4 | 27.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Ja Morant draws Miami Heat's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Davion Mitchell (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Giannis Antetokounmpo secondary, with Bam Adebayo as the low-man/help.
Model lines Morant at 19.4 pts (range 16.4–22.3) vs a 19.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (53%), projected 113–112, ~225 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 13.9 | 14 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.6 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 20.7 | 20.6 | 20.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 16.9 | 16.8 | 17 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Santi Aldama draws Miami Heat's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Davion Mitchell (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Giannis Antetokounmpo secondary, with Bam Adebayo as the low-man/help.
Model lines Aldama at 13.9 pts (range 11.2–16.6) vs a 14 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (53%), projected 113–112, ~225 total at 96.6 pace.