Matchup model · Saturday, November 28, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 25.9 | 26 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.1 | 36 | 36 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.3 | 29.2 | 29.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 32.8 | 32.7 | 33 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brunson at 25.9 pts (range 21.9–29.9) vs a 26 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (60%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.1 | 20 | 20 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 11.9 | 11.9 | 12 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3 | 3 | 3 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35 | 34.9 | 35 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 32 | 31.9 | 32 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.1 | 23 | 23 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Derik Queen (strong defender, 83 Rim protection), Yves Missi secondary, with Dejounte Murray as the low-man/help.
Model lines Towns at 20 pts (range 17–23.1) vs a 20 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (60%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.5 | 21.3 | 21.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31 | 30.8 | 31 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.2 | 27 | 27 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.3 | 25.1 | 25.5 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Trey Murphy III draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines III at 21.3 pts (range 18.1–24.6) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (60%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 20.8 | 21 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.9 | 29.7 | 30 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 26.7 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.2 | 24 | 24 | 50% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Zion Williamson draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Williamson at 20.8 pts (range 17.6–24) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (60%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.