Matchup model · Saturday, November 28, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 27.9 | 27 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.2 | 38.7 | 37 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 30.1 | 31.3 | 30 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 33.9 | 35.3 | 34 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brunson at 27.9 pts (range 23.6–32.2) vs a 27 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (52%), projected 117–118, ~235 total at 98.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 21 | 20 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 13 | 12.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 37.2 | 36 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 34 | 33 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 23.2 | 24.1 | 23 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Derik Queen (strong defender, 83 Rim protection), Yves Missi secondary, with Dejounte Murray as the low-man/help.
Model lines Towns at 21 pts (range 17.8–24.3) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (52%), projected 117–118, ~235 total at 98.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 24.6 | 24 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.8 | 35.6 | 35 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 30.2 | 30.9 | 30 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 29.3 | 28.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Trey Murphy III draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines III at 24.6 pts (range 20.8–28.3) vs a 24 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (52%), projected 118–117, ~235 total at 98.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.7 | 22.2 | 21.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 6 | 6 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.8 | 31.5 | 31 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.6 | 28.2 | 27.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.9 | 25.5 | 25 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Zion Williamson draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Williamson at 22.2 pts (range 18.8–25.6) vs a 21.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (52%), projected 118–117, ~235 total at 98.5 pace.