Matchup model · Saturday, November 28, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Davis draws Utah Jazz's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jusuf Nurkic (strong defender, 86 Rim protection), Kyle Filipowski secondary, with Isaiah Collier as the low-man/help.
Model lines Davis at 20.4 pts (range 17.3–23.5) vs a 20.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Model favors Utah Jazz (62%), projected 112–114, ~226 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.9 | 18 | 18 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 2 | 2 | 2 | 50% | Lean under |
| Assists | 8 | 8 | 8 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 28 | 28 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 19.9 | 20 | 20 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.9 | 26 | 26 | 50% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Trae Young draws Utah Jazz's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Isaiah Collier secondary, with Jusuf Nurkic as the low-man/help.
Model lines Young at 18 pts (range 15.2–20.7) vs a 18 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Utah Jazz (62%), projected 112–114, ~226 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.7 | 26.7 | 26.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.7 | 35.7 | 35.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.8 | 28.8 | 29 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Lauri Markkanen draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Alex Sarr as the low-man/help.
Model lines Markkanen at 26.7 pts (range 22.6–30.8) vs a 26.5 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Utah Jazz (62%), projected 114–112, ~226 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 33.4 | 33.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.5 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Keyonte George draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Alex Sarr as the low-man/help.
Model lines George at 23.6 pts (range 20–27.2) vs a 23.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Utah Jazz (62%), projected 114–112, ~226 total at 96.5 pace.