Matchup model · Saturday, November 28, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.6 | 27.2 | 25.5 | 65% | Over |
| Rebounds | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 62% | Over |
| Assists | 11.7 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 40 | 42.6 | 40 | 67% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 28.3 | 30.1 | 28.5 | 64% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 37.3 | 39.7 | 37.5 | 64% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Trae Young draws Utah Jazz's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Jusuf Nurkic as the low-man/help.
Model lines Young at 27.2 pts (range 23.1–31.4) vs a 25.5 line — a good chance to clear it (65%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Utah Jazz (59%), projected 122–124, ~245 total at 100.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.3 | 26.8 | 25.5 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 12.1 | 12.8 | 12 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 40.9 | 43.4 | 41 | 65% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 37.4 | 39.6 | 37.5 | 64% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.8 | 30.5 | 29 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Davis draws Utah Jazz's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jusuf Nurkic (strong defender, 86 Rim protection), Jaxson Hayes secondary, with Josh Okogie as the low-man/help.
Model lines Davis at 26.8 pts (range 22.7–30.9) vs a 25.5 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Utah Jazz (59%), projected 122–124, ~245 total at 100.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.5 | 30.4 | 28.5 | 64% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.6 | 7 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.7 | 42.3 | 39.5 | 68% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 34.7 | 32.5 | 66% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 35.6 | 37.9 | 35.5 | 66% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Keyonte George draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines George at 30.4 pts (range 25.7–35) vs a 28.5 line — a good chance to clear it (64%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Utah Jazz (59%), projected 124–122, ~245 total at 100.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 30.1 | 28.5 | 63% | Over |
| Rebounds | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.4 | 39.8 | 37.5 | 66% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 35.1 | 37.4 | 35 | 66% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 30.6 | 32.6 | 30.5 | 66% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Lauri Markkanen draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Markkanen at 30.1 pts (range 25.5–34.8) vs a 28.5 line — a good chance to clear it (63%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Utah Jazz (59%), projected 124–122, ~245 total at 100.7 pace.