Matchup model · Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.7 | 25.7 | 24.5 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.9 | 4 | 4 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.2 | 36.4 | 35 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.3 | 32.4 | 31.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 29.7 | 28.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Pascal Siakam draws LA Clippers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Model lines Siakam at 25.7 pts (range 21.8–29.6) vs a 24.5 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (76%), projected 119–112, ~231 total at 97 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.4 | 20.2 | 19.5 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 9 | 9.2 | 9 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.4 | 32.5 | 31.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.4 | 23.2 | 22.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 29.4 | 28.5 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Andrew Nembhard draws LA Clippers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Model lines Nembhard at 20.2 pts (range 17.1–23.3) vs a 19.5 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (76%), projected 119–112, ~231 total at 97 pace.