Matchup model · Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.8 | 18.9 | 18 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.1 | 2 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.1 | 24.4 | 23 | 66% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 21.1 | 22.3 | 21 | 65% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 19.8 | 20.9 | 20 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jerami Grant draws Los Angeles Lakers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Austin Reaves (average defender, 64 Perimeter D), Luka Doncic secondary.
Model lines Grant at 18.9 pts (range 16–21.8) vs a 18 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Los Angeles Lakers (66%), projected 116–119, ~235 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.6 | 16.5 | 15.5 | 63% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 59% | Over |
| Assists | 1.9 | 2 | 2 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.1 | 23.3 | 22 | 65% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 20.2 | 21.3 | 20 | 66% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 17.5 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 63% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Cameron Boozer draws Los Angeles Lakers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Austin Reaves (average defender, 64 Perimeter D), Luka Doncic secondary.
Model lines Boozer at 16.5 pts (range 13.8–19.2) vs a 15.5 line — a good chance to clear it (63%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Los Angeles Lakers (66%), projected 116–119, ~235 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.9 | 41.9 | 40 | 60% | Over |
| Rebounds | 7.9 | 8.2 | 8 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 9.6 | 10 | 9.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 57.4 | 60.1 | 57.5 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 47.8 | 50.1 | 48 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 49.5 | 51.9 | 49.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Luka Doncic draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
Model lines Doncic at 41.9 pts (range 35.5–48.3) vs a 40 line — a lean to clear it (60%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Los Angeles Lakers (66%), projected 119–116, ~235 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.8 | 26 | 25 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 5 | 5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.1 | 37.8 | 36 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 29.6 | 31 | 29.5 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 31.3 | 32.8 | 31.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Austin Reaves draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
Model lines Reaves at 26 pts (range 22–30) vs a 25 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Los Angeles Lakers (66%), projected 119–116, ~235 total at 98.8 pace.