Matchup model · Thursday, November 12, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.2 | 21.8 | 21 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 58% | Over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.1 | 31 | 30 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 26.8 | 27.6 | 27 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.5 | 25.2 | 24.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Ingram draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
Model lines Ingram at 21.8 pts (range 18.5–25.1) vs a 21 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (66%), projected 115–118, ~233 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.4 | 20 | 19.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 28.2 | 29 | 28 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 24.8 | 25.5 | 25 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 22.8 | 23.5 | 23 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
RJ Barrett draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
Model lines Barrett at 20 pts (range 16.9–23) vs a 19.5 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (66%), projected 115–118, ~233 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 29.1 | 28.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 13 | 12.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 45.6 | 44.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 40.9 | 42 | 41 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 31.8 | 32.7 | 32 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Victor Wembanyama draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jakob Poeltl (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jamal Shead as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wembanyama at 29.1 pts (range 24.6–33.5) vs a 28.5 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (66%), projected 118–115, ~233 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.1 | 19.6 | 19 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 35.9 | 35 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 26.2 | 25.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.5 | 29.3 | 28.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Stephon Castle draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
Model lines Castle at 19.6 pts (range 16.6–22.6) vs a 19 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (66%), projected 118–115, ~233 total at 98.8 pace.