Matchup model · Wednesday, November 18, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.2 | 22.4 | 21 | 65% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.1 | 31.8 | 30 | 66% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 26.8 | 28.3 | 27 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.5 | 25.9 | 24.5 | 63% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Ingram draws Utah Jazz's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Jusuf Nurkic as the low-man/help.
Model lines Ingram at 22.4 pts (range 19–25.9) vs a 21 line — a good chance to clear it (65%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Utah Jazz (51%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.4 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 28.2 | 29.8 | 28 | 67% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 24.8 | 26.2 | 25 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 22.8 | 24.1 | 23 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
RJ Barrett draws Utah Jazz's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Jusuf Nurkic as the low-man/help.
Model lines Barrett at 20.5 pts (range 17.4–23.7) vs a 19.5 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Utah Jazz (51%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.5 | 29.4 | 28.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4 | 58% | Over |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.7 | 41.1 | 39.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 33.7 | 32.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 35.6 | 36.8 | 35.5 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Keyonte George draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
Model lines George at 29.4 pts (range 24.9–33.9) vs a 28.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Utah Jazz (51%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 29.2 | 28.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.4 | 38.7 | 37.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 35.1 | 36.3 | 35 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 30.6 | 31.6 | 30.5 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Lauri Markkanen draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
Model lines Markkanen at 29.2 pts (range 24.7–33.7) vs a 28.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Utah Jazz (51%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.7 pace.