Matchup model · Wednesday, November 18, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.5 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.8 | 30.9 | 31 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 27.2 | 27 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.2 | 25.3 | 25 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Ingram draws Utah Jazz's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Isaiah Collier secondary, with Jusuf Nurkic as the low-man/help.
Model lines Ingram at 21.6 pts (range 18.3–24.9) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Utah Jazz (60%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.3 | 19.4 | 19.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 28 | 28 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.6 | 24.7 | 24.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 22.6 | 22.7 | 22.5 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
RJ Barrett draws Utah Jazz's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Isaiah Collier secondary, with Jusuf Nurkic as the low-man/help.
Model lines Barrett at 19.4 pts (range 16.4–22.3) vs a 19.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Model favors Utah Jazz (60%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.7 | 26.6 | 26.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.7 | 35.6 | 35.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 33.6 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.8 | 28.7 | 29 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Lauri Markkanen draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
Model lines Markkanen at 26.6 pts (range 22.6–30.7) vs a 26.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Utah Jazz (60%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.6 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 33.3 | 33.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 27.2 | 27.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.7 | 29.6 | 29.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Keyonte George draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
Model lines George at 23.5 pts (range 19.9–27.1) vs a 23.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Utah Jazz (60%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.