Matchup model · Saturday, November 21, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.8 | 23.8 | 23 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 8.8 | 9.1 | 9 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 38.5 | 37 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.6 | 32.9 | 31.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 29.4 | 28 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Paolo Banchero draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
Model lines Banchero at 23.8 pts (range 20.1–27.4) vs a 23 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (65%), projected 117–121, ~238 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.1 | 23 | 22 | 60% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4 | 4.2 | 4 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.5 | 32.8 | 31.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 26.1 | 27.2 | 26 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Franz Wagner draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wagner at 23 pts (range 19.5–26.6) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (60%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (65%), projected 117–121, ~238 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 32.4 | 33.4 | 32.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.5 | 46 | 44.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 36.7 | 37.9 | 36.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 40.2 | 41.5 | 40 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Tyrese Maxey draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
Model lines Maxey at 33.4 pts (range 28.3–38.5) vs a 32.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (65%), projected 121–117, ~238 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.7 | 30.7 | 29.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 7.6 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 59% | Over |
| Assists | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 41.7 | 43.1 | 41.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 37.3 | 38.5 | 37.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 34.1 | 35.2 | 34 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Joel Embiid draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Wendell Carter Jr. (strong defender, 83 Rim protection), Goga Bitadze secondary, with Jalen Suggs as the low-man/help.
Model lines Embiid at 30.7 pts (range 26–35.4) vs a 29.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (65%), projected 121–117, ~238 total at 99.4 pace.