Matchup model · Saturday, November 21, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 22.4 | 22 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 36 | 36 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 30.6 | 30.8 | 30.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 27.4 | 27.6 | 27.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Paolo Banchero draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
Model lines Banchero at 22.4 pts (range 18.9–25.8) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (62%), projected 113–115, ~228 total at 97.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.6 | 20.8 | 20.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.1 | 29.3 | 29 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.8 | 26 | 26 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.9 | 24.1 | 24 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Franz Wagner draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wagner at 20.8 pts (range 17.6–23.9) vs a 20.5 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (62%), projected 113–115, ~228 total at 97.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.7 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 40.7 | 40.6 | 40.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 35.6 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.8 | 33.6 | 34 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jaylen Brown draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
Model lines Brown at 28.5 pts (range 24.2–32.9) vs a 28.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (62%), projected 115–113, ~228 total at 97.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 28.1 | 28.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39 | 38.9 | 39 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.4 | 32.2 | 32.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 34.9 | 34.7 | 35 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Tyrese Maxey draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
Model lines Maxey at 28.1 pts (range 23.8–32.4) vs a 28.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (62%), projected 115–113, ~228 total at 97.1 pace.