Matchup model · Wednesday, November 18, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 33.6 | 35.2 | 33.5 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5 | 64% | Over |
| Assists | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 43 | 45.1 | 43 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 38.8 | 40.6 | 39 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 37.8 | 39.6 | 38 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Edwards draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Edwards at 35.2 pts (range 29.8–40.6) vs a 33.5 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (53%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.5 | 20.4 | 19.5 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 64% | Over |
| Assists | 7 | 7.4 | 7 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 32.7 | 31 | 64% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 24.2 | 25.3 | 24 | 64% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 26.5 | 27.8 | 26.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
LaMelo Ball draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Ball at 20.4 pts (range 17.3–23.6) vs a 19.5 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (53%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 24.8 | 24 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6 | 62% | Over |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.8 | 36 | 35 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 30.2 | 31.2 | 30 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Trey Murphy III draws Minnesota Timberwolves's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaden McDaniels (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Ayo Dosunmu secondary, with Rudy Gobert as the low-man/help.
Model lines III at 24.8 pts (range 21–28.5) vs a 24 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (53%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.7 | 22.4 | 21.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.8 | 31.8 | 31 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.6 | 28.5 | 27.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.9 | 25.7 | 25 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Zion Williamson draws Minnesota Timberwolves's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaden McDaniels (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Ayo Dosunmu secondary, with Rudy Gobert as the low-man/help.
Model lines Williamson at 22.4 pts (range 19–25.8) vs a 21.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (53%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.8 pace.