Matchup model · Wednesday, November 18, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.8 | 28.7 | 29 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5 | 5 | 5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.5 | 37.4 | 37.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 33.8 | 33.7 | 34 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 32.5 | 32.4 | 32.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Edwards draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Edwards at 28.7 pts (range 24.3–33.1) vs a 29 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (60%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.1 | 21 | 21 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5 | 5 | 5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.8 | 32.7 | 33 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.8 | 27.7 | 28 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.1 | 26 | 26 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Julius Randle draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Randle at 21 pts (range 17.8–24.2) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (60%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.5 | 21.3 | 21.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31 | 30.8 | 31 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.2 | 27 | 27 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.3 | 25.1 | 25.5 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Trey Murphy III draws Minnesota Timberwolves's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaden McDaniels (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Ayo Dosunmu secondary, with Rudy Gobert as the low-man/help.
Model lines III at 21.3 pts (range 18.1–24.6) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (60%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 20.8 | 21 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.9 | 29.7 | 30 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 26.7 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.2 | 24 | 24 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Zion Williamson draws Minnesota Timberwolves's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaden McDaniels (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Ayo Dosunmu secondary, with Rudy Gobert as the low-man/help.
Model lines Williamson at 20.8 pts (range 17.7–24) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (60%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.