Matchup model · Wednesday, November 18, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.7 | 28.5 | 27.5 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 12.9 | 13.2 | 13 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 10.7 | 11 | 10.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 51.3 | 52.7 | 51.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 41.7 | 40.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 38.4 | 39.5 | 38.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Nikola Jokić draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Duren (solid defender, 76 Rim protection), Ausar Thompson secondary, with Javonte Green as the low-man/help.
Model lines Jokić at 28.5 pts (range 24.1–32.8) vs a 27.5 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Model favors Detroit Pistons (51%), projected 114–114, ~228 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.4 | 25.3 | 25.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.9 | 37 | 37 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 29.8 | 29.7 | 30 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 32.5 | 32.6 | 32.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jamal Murray draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Murray at 25.3 pts (range 21.4–29.2) vs a 25.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Model favors Detroit Pistons (51%), projected 114–114, ~228 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.9 | 24 | 24 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 9.9 | 10.1 | 10 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 39.6 | 39.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 29.4 | 29.6 | 29.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 33.8 | 34 | 34 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Cade Cunningham draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
Model lines Cunningham at 24 pts (range 20.3–27.6) vs a 24 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (51%), projected 114–114, ~228 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 10.5 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2 | 2 | 2 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32 | 32.4 | 32 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 30 | 30.4 | 30 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 21.5 | 21.7 | 21.5 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Duren draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jonas Valančiūnas (solid defender, 74 Rim protection), Peyton Watson secondary, with Bruce Brown as the low-man/help.
Model lines Duren at 19.7 pts (range 16.7–22.7) vs a 19.5 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (51%), projected 114–114, ~228 total at 98.8 pace.