Matchup model · Wednesday, November 18, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.8 | 29.5 | 29 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 13.2 | 13.6 | 13 | 58% | Over |
| Assists | 11.2 | 11.6 | 11 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 53.2 | 54.7 | 53 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 42 | 43.1 | 42 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 40 | 41.1 | 40 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Nikola Jokić draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Duren (solid defender, 76 Rim protection), Ausar Thompson secondary, with Javonte Green as the low-man/help.
Model lines Jokić at 29.5 pts (range 25–34) vs a 29 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (62%), projected 116–119, ~235 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.2 | 27.6 | 27 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 58% | Over |
| Assists | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 40.1 | 39.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.8 | 32.3 | 32 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 34.7 | 35.3 | 34.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jamal Murray draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Murray at 27.6 pts (range 23.4–31.8) vs a 27 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (62%), projected 116–119, ~235 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 27.8 | 27 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6 | 6.2 | 6 | 57% | Lean over |
| Assists | 11.6 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 46.2 | 44.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 34.1 | 33 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 38.4 | 39.9 | 38.5 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Cade Cunningham draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
Model lines Cunningham at 27.8 pts (range 23.6–32.1) vs a 27 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (62%), projected 119–116, ~235 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 24.4 | 23.5 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 11.3 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 38.6 | 37 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.5 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.7 | 26.9 | 25.5 | 63% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Duren draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jonas Valančiūnas (solid defender, 74 Rim protection), Peyton Watson secondary, with Bruce Brown as the low-man/help.
Model lines Duren at 24.4 pts (range 20.6–28.1) vs a 23.5 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (62%), projected 119–116, ~235 total at 99.4 pace.