Matchup model · Friday, November 20, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 20.3 | 20 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 28.4 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.1 | 25.2 | 25 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 23.5 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Miller draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary.
Model lines Miller at 20.3 pts (range 17.2–23.3) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.1 | 20.2 | 20 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32 | 32.1 | 32 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 24.9 | 25 | 25 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.2 | 27.3 | 27 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
LaMelo Ball draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary.
Model lines Ball at 20.2 pts (range 17.1–23.2) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 17 | 17 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 25.3 | 25.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Josh Giddey draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Green secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
Model lines Giddey at 17 pts (range 14.3–19.7) vs a 17 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6 | 44% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Matas Buzelis draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Green secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
Model lines Buzelis at 16.3 pts (range 13.6–19) vs a 16.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.9 pace.