Matchup model · Saturday, November 21, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.1 | 29.2 | 28 | 60% | Over |
| Rebounds | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44 | 45.4 | 44 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 37.6 | 38.9 | 37.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 34.5 | 35.8 | 34.5 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jayson Tatum draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
Model lines Tatum at 29.2 pts (range 24.8–33.7) vs a 28 line — a lean to clear it (60%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (53%), projected 117–116, ~233 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.5 | 21.3 | 20.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.3 | 32.3 | 31.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 24.8 | 25.7 | 25 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 27 | 28 | 27 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Payton Pritchard draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
Model lines Pritchard at 21.3 pts (range 18.1–24.6) vs a 20.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (53%), projected 117–116, ~233 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.8 | 28.2 | 28 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 39.8 | 39.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 35.5 | 35.9 | 35.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 31.6 | 32 | 31.5 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Michael Porter Jr. draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Jr. at 28.2 pts (range 23.9–32.5) vs a 28 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (53%), projected 116–117, ~233 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.1 | 20.4 | 20 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5 | 5 | 5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 31.6 | 31 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 26.2 | 26.5 | 26 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.1 | 25.4 | 25 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Julius Randle draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Randle at 20.4 pts (range 17.3–23.5) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (53%), projected 116–117, ~233 total at 96.6 pace.