Matchup model · Saturday, November 21, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.8 | 21.9 | 22 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 10 | 10 | 10 | 50% | Lean under |
| Assists | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.1 | 37.2 | 37 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.8 | 31.9 | 32 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.1 | 27.2 | 27 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jayson Tatum draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
Model lines Tatum at 21.9 pts (range 18.6–25.3) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (56%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.3 | 17.4 | 17.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 26.2 | 26.3 | 26 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.6 | 22.7 | 22.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 20.9 | 21 | 21 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Paul George draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
Model lines George at 17.4 pts (range 14.7–20.1) vs a 17.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (56%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.2 | 24.1 | 24 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3 | 3 | 3 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.3 | 34.2 | 34.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.3 | 31.2 | 31.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.2 | 27.1 | 27 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Michael Porter Jr. draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Jr. at 24.1 pts (range 20.4–27.8) vs a 24 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (56%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 20.5 | 20.4 | 20.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 17.4 | 17.3 | 17.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 18.7 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Cam Thomas draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Thomas at 15.5 pts (range 12.8–18.2) vs a 15.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Brooklyn Nets (56%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 96.5 pace.