Matchup model · Tuesday, November 24, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.8 | 21.6 | 22 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 10 | 10 | 10 | 50% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.1 | 36.9 | 37 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.8 | 31.6 | 32 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.1 | 26.9 | 27 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jayson Tatum draws Atlanta Hawks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Nickeil Alexander-Walker secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
Model lines Tatum at 21.6 pts (range 18.3–24.9) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (64%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 97 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.3 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 26.2 | 26 | 26 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.6 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 20.9 | 20.7 | 21 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Paul George draws Atlanta Hawks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Nickeil Alexander-Walker secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
Model lines George at 17.1 pts (range 14.4–19.8) vs a 17.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (64%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 97 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 32.8 | 33 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 30.4 | 30.4 | 30.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Johnson draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Johnson at 22.5 pts (range 19–25.9) vs a 22.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (64%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 97 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.8 | 20.8 | 21 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 27.9 | 28 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 50% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Alexander-Walker at 20.8 pts (range 17.6–24) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (64%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 97 pace.