Matchup model · Tuesday, November 24, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.1 | 28.6 | 28 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44 | 44.9 | 44 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 37.6 | 38.3 | 37.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 34.5 | 35.1 | 34.5 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jayson Tatum draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
Model lines Tatum at 28.6 pts (range 24.2–32.9) vs a 28 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (62%), projected 116–119, ~235 total at 98.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.5 | 20.8 | 20.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.3 | 31.9 | 31.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 24.8 | 25.2 | 25 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 27 | 27.5 | 27 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Payton Pritchard draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
Model lines Pritchard at 20.8 pts (range 17.6–24) vs a 20.5 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (62%), projected 116–119, ~235 total at 98.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27 | 27.7 | 27 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 11.6 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.2 | 49.4 | 48 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 38.6 | 39.5 | 38.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 36.6 | 37.5 | 36.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Johnson draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Johnson at 27.7 pts (range 23.4–31.9) vs a 27 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (62%), projected 119–116, ~235 total at 98.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.1 | 25.7 | 25 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.1 | 33.9 | 33 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 28.9 | 29.6 | 29 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 29.3 | 30 | 29.5 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Alexander-Walker at 25.7 pts (range 21.8–29.6) vs a 25 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (62%), projected 119–116, ~235 total at 98.5 pace.