Matchup model · Thursday, November 26, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.7 | 29.1 | 27.5 | 63% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.7 | 6 | 5.5 | 64% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.8 | 39.7 | 38 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.1 | 33.7 | 32 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 33.4 | 35.1 | 33.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Donovan Mitchell draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary, with Nic Claxton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Mitchell at 29.1 pts (range 24.7–33.6) vs a 27.5 line — a good chance to clear it (63%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 5 | 5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.2 | 34.9 | 33 | 65% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 26.6 | 25.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 29.9 | 28.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
James Harden draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary, with Nic Claxton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Harden at 21.5 pts (range 18.2–24.8) vs a 20.5 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.8 | 22.7 | 22 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 29.1 | 28 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 26.4 | 25.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.4 | 25.4 | 24.5 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Norman Powell draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Powell at 22.7 pts (range 19.2–26.2) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.4 | 22.3 | 21.5 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.9 | 3 | 3 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 32.6 | 31 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 28.3 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.3 | 25.3 | 24.5 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Matas Buzelis draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Buzelis at 22.3 pts (range 18.9–25.7) vs a 21.5 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 100.2 pace.