Matchup model · Saturday, November 28, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.6 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 34.8 | 35 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.2 | 30.1 | 30 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 31.3 | 31.2 | 31.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Stephen Curry draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Curry at 26.5 pts (range 22.4–30.5) vs a 26.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Model favors Detroit Pistons (58%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 97.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 19.9 | 20 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.5 | 30.5 | 30.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.6 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 24.9 | 24.8 | 25 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jimmy Butler draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Butler at 19.9 pts (range 16.9–22.9) vs a 20 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Model favors Detroit Pistons (58%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 97.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.9 | 23.8 | 24 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 9.9 | 9.9 | 10 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 39.3 | 39.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.8 | 33.8 | 34 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Cade Cunningham draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Cunningham at 23.8 pts (range 20.2–27.5) vs a 24 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (58%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 97.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2 | 2 | 2 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32 | 32.1 | 32 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 30 | 30.1 | 30 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Duren draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Al Horford (strong defender, 80 Rim protection), Kristaps Porzingis secondary, with De'Anthony Melton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Duren at 19.5 pts (range 16.5–22.5) vs a 19.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (58%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 97.4 pace.