Matchup model · Saturday, November 28, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 4.9 | 5 | 5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.9 | 32.4 | 32 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27 | 27.4 | 27 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 28.6 | 28 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Stephen Curry draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Curry at 23.6 pts (range 20–27.2) vs a 23.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (66%), projected 114–118, ~232 total at 99.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.9 | 19.3 | 19 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.5 | 28.2 | 27.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.2 | 25.8 | 25 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 21.2 | 21.7 | 21 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Kristaps Porzingis draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Duren (solid defender, 76 Rim protection), Ausar Thompson secondary, with Javonte Green as the low-man/help.
Model lines Porzingis at 19.3 pts (range 16.4–22.3) vs a 19 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (66%), projected 114–118, ~232 total at 99.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 27.7 | 27 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6 | 6.2 | 6 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 11.6 | 12 | 11.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 45.9 | 44.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 33.9 | 33 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 38.4 | 39.7 | 38.5 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Cade Cunningham draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Cunningham at 27.7 pts (range 23.5–31.9) vs a 27 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (66%), projected 118–114, ~232 total at 99.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 24.1 | 23.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 11.3 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 38.3 | 37 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 34.6 | 35.8 | 34.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.7 | 26.6 | 25.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Duren draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Al Horford (strong defender, 80 Rim protection), Kristaps Porzingis secondary, with De'Anthony Melton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Duren at 24.1 pts (range 20.4–27.8) vs a 23.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (66%), projected 118–114, ~232 total at 99.1 pace.