Matchup model · Thursday, November 12, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.9 | 28 | 28 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.1 | 38.2 | 38 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.4 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.6 | 33.7 | 33.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Donovan Mitchell draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary.
Model lines Mitchell at 28 pts (range 23.7–32.3) vs a 28 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 112–113, ~225 total at 96.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.5 | 20.6 | 20.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Assists | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33 | 33.1 | 33 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 28.3 | 28 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
James Harden draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary.
Model lines Harden at 20.6 pts (range 17.4–23.7) vs a 20.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 112–113, ~225 total at 96.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 17 | 17 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Assists | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.1 | 26.2 | 26 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Josh Giddey draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Giddey at 17 pts (range 14.3–19.7) vs a 17 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 113–112, ~225 total at 96.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6 | 44% | Lean under |
| Assists | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Matas Buzelis draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Buzelis at 16.3 pts (range 13.6–19) vs a 16.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (56%), projected 113–112, ~225 total at 96.9 pace.