Matchup model · Tuesday, November 24, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.8 | 22.8 | 23 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 8.8 | 9 | 9 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 37.4 | 37 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 31.6 | 31.8 | 31.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 28.4 | 28 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Paolo Banchero draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
Model lines Banchero at 22.8 pts (range 19.3–26.3) vs a 23 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (74%), projected 114–119, ~233 total at 99.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4 | 4.1 | 4 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.5 | 31.8 | 31.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.5 | 27.7 | 27.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 26.1 | 26.2 | 26 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Franz Wagner draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wagner at 22.1 pts (range 18.7–25.5) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (74%), projected 114–119, ~233 total at 99.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 36.2 | 37.4 | 36 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Assists | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.4 | 50 | 48.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 41.9 | 40.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 44 | 45.5 | 44 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 37.4 pts (range 31.6–43.1) vs a 36 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (74%), projected 119–114, ~233 total at 99.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 22.9 | 22 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5 | 59% | Over |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 34.5 | 33.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 28.2 | 27.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 29.3 | 28.5 | 56% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Williams draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
Model lines Williams at 22.9 pts (range 19.4–26.4) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (74%), projected 119–114, ~233 total at 99.5 pace.