Matchup model · Tuesday, November 24, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 21.8 | 22 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 35.4 | 36 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.6 | 30.2 | 30.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.4 | 27 | 27.5 | 45% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Paolo Banchero draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
Model lines Banchero at 21.8 pts (range 18.4–25.1) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (69%), projected 111–115, ~226 total at 97.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.6 | 20.2 | 20.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5 | 58% | Over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.1 | 28.7 | 29 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.8 | 25.4 | 26 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.9 | 23.5 | 24 | 45% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Franz Wagner draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wagner at 20.2 pts (range 17.1–23.3) vs a 20.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — switches hand him the mismatch he hunts in iso.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (69%), projected 111–115, ~226 total at 97.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 31.1 | 32.1 | 31 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 42 | 43.2 | 42 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 35.4 | 36.5 | 35.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 37.7 | 38.8 | 37.5 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 35.4 pts a night over his last 5 (+4.3 vs season). Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 32.1 pts (range 27.2–37) vs a 31 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +4.3 over his season pace.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (69%), projected 115–111, ~226 total at 97.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 8.9 | 9 | 9 | 50% | Lean under |
| Assists | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.7 | 27.8 | 27.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 26 | 26.1 | 26 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 18.8 | 18.8 | 19 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Chet Holmgren draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Wendell Carter Jr. (strong defender, 83 Rim protection), Goga Bitadze secondary, with Jalen Suggs as the low-man/help.
Model lines Holmgren at 17.1 pts (range 14.4–19.8) vs a 17 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (69%), projected 115–111, ~226 total at 97.9 pace.