Matchup model · Friday, November 27, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.5 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.8 | 30.9 | 31 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 27.2 | 27 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.2 | 25.3 | 25 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Ingram draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
Model lines Ingram at 21.6 pts (range 18.3–24.9) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (62%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.3 | 19.4 | 19.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 28 | 28 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.6 | 24.7 | 24.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 22.6 | 22.7 | 22.5 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
RJ Barrett draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
Model lines Barrett at 19.4 pts (range 16.4–22.4) vs a 19.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (62%), projected 111–114, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25 | 24.9 | 25 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Assists | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.6 | 39.5 | 39.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 36.5 | 36.4 | 36.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.1 | 28 | 28 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Victor Wembanyama draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jakob Poeltl (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jamal Shead as the low-man/help.
Model lines Wembanyama at 24.9 pts (range 21.1–28.8) vs a 25 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (62%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4 | 43% | Lean under |
| Assists | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 28.6 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 22.4 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.8 | 24.7 | 25 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
De'Aaron Fox draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
Model lines Fox at 18.6 pts (range 15.7–21.4) vs a 18.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (62%), projected 114–111, ~225 total at 96.5 pace.