Matchup model · Friday, November 13, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.9 | 24.1 | 24 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 9.9 | 10 | 10 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 39.6 | 39.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 29.4 | 29.6 | 29.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 33.8 | 34.1 | 34 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Cade Cunningham draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Cunningham at 24.1 pts (range 20.4–27.8) vs a 24 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (60%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 97.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.5 | 19.6 | 19.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2 | 2 | 2 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32 | 32.2 | 32 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 30 | 30.1 | 30 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 21.5 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Duren draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Daniel Gafford (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Dereck Lively II secondary, with Max Christie as the low-man/help.
Model lines Duren at 19.6 pts (range 16.6–22.6) vs a 19.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (60%), projected 111–113, ~224 total at 97.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 20.9 | 21 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.7 | 27.6 | 27.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.5 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Cooper Flagg draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Flagg at 20.9 pts (range 17.7–24.1) vs a 21 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (60%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 97.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.2 | 15.1 | 15 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 58% | Over |
| Assists | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 19.9 | 19.9 | 20 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 18.5 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Naji Marshall draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Marshall at 15.1 pts (range 12.4–17.8) vs a 15 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (60%), projected 113–111, ~224 total at 97.4 pace.