Matchup model · Friday, November 13, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 6 | 6.3 | 6 | 58% | Over |
| Assists | 11.6 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 46.6 | 44.5 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 34.4 | 33 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 38.4 | 40.3 | 38.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Cade Cunningham draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Cunningham at 28.1 pts (range 23.8–32.4) vs a 27 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (56%), projected 116–118, ~234 total at 100 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 24.3 | 23.5 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 11.3 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Assists | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 38.7 | 37 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 34.6 | 36.2 | 34.5 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.7 | 26.9 | 25.5 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Duren draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Daniel Gafford (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Dereck Lively II secondary, with Max Christie as the low-man/help.
Model lines Duren at 24.3 pts (range 20.6–28.1) vs a 23.5 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (56%), projected 116–118, ~234 total at 100 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.4 | 23.8 | 23.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 59% | Over |
| Assists | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.3 | 33 | 32.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 28 | 28.6 | 28 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 27.7 | 28.3 | 27.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Kyrie Irving draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Irving at 23.8 pts (range 20.2–27.5) vs a 23.5 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (56%), projected 118–116, ~234 total at 100 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 21.4 | 21 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.2 | 33 | 32 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.7 | 28.3 | 27.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 25.5 | 26 | 25.5 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Cooper Flagg draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Flagg at 21.4 pts (range 18.1–24.6) vs a 21 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (56%), projected 118–116, ~234 total at 100 pace.