Matchup model · Thursday, November 12, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.3 | 23.1 | 22.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 36.2 | 35 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.4 | 28.4 | 27.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 29.8 | 30.9 | 30 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Ryan Rollins draws Miami Heat's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Davion Mitchell (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Giannis Antetokounmpo secondary, with Bam Adebayo as the low-man/help.
Model lines Rollins at 23.1 pts (range 19.5–26.6) vs a 22.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (71%), projected 118–122, ~240 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 22.9 | 22 | 60% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 4.8 | 5 | 5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.1 | 33.2 | 32 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 28.2 | 27.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 27 | 28 | 27 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Tyler Herro draws Miami Heat's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Davion Mitchell (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Giannis Antetokounmpo secondary, with Bam Adebayo as the low-man/help.
Model lines Herro at 22.9 pts (range 19.4–26.5) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (60%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (71%), projected 118–122, ~240 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.6 | 30.3 | 28.5 | 64% | Over |
| Rebounds | 10.7 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 61% | Over |
| Assists | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.2 | 47.7 | 45 | 66% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 39.3 | 41.5 | 39.5 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 34.5 | 36.5 | 34.5 | 63% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Giannis Antetokounmpo draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (solid defender, 72 Perimeter D), Ryan Rollins secondary, with Myles Turner as the low-man/help.
Model lines Antetokounmpo at 30.3 pts (range 25.7–34.9) vs a 28.5 line — a good chance to clear it (64%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (71%), projected 122–118, ~240 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.7 | 24.8 | 23.5 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 10.6 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 60% | Over |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38 | 39.8 | 38 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 34.3 | 35.9 | 34.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 27.4 | 28.7 | 27.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Bam Adebayo draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Myles Turner (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Kel'el Ware secondary, with Ryan Rollins as the low-man/help.
Model lines Adebayo at 24.8 pts (range 21–28.6) vs a 23.5 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (71%), projected 122–118, ~240 total at 99.7 pace.