The Index · Live

Duncan RobinsonDetroit Pistons · #55

Forward · 6'7", 215 lb · York, Maine · Age 32 · 8th season

Duncan Robinson is one of the NBA's elite movement shooters, now with the Detroit Pistons. An improbable Division III-to-NBA story — from Williams College to Michigan to going undrafted in 2018 — he became a two-time NBA Finalist with Miami and the fastest player ever to 500 made threes. He joined Detroit in a 2025 sign-and-trade and shot 41% from three in 2025-26 across 77 starts.

MVP race · #95Forward rank · #97Balladex Impact · 51
⚖ Quick compare
D
Duncan Robinson
◆ Rated
Detroit Pistons · #55 · Forward
Duncan Robinson
Season avg12.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.1 ast · .456 fg
Career avg11.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.9 ast · .434 fg
Live win probabilityMavericks 56%
Balladex model · projected 118–116 · 100 pace
Tonight's projectionmodel
13.7pts
3.0reb
2.4ast
44%win
Tonight's matchup · who he'll mainly guardhead-to-head
Duncan Robinson
Detroit Pistons · Forward
C
vs
76
Cooper Flagg
Dallas Mavericks · Solid defender
Category breakout
Head-to-head history
Home/away splits from recent games; live grades from the DNA model.
LADDER#95 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 51 — Rotation piece tierINDEXDuncan Robinson · Detroit PistonsLADDER#95 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 51 — Rotation piece tierINDEXDuncan Robinson · Detroit Pistons
Scouting report

Duncan Robinson — the report card

Read his whole game at a glance, then dive into any skill. Grades from the DNA model + real production.

C-
Movement Shooter · Floor-Spacer · Impact 51
Duncan Robinson is one of the NBA's elite movement shooters, now with the Detroit Pistons. An improbable Division III-to-NBA story — from Williams Col
C
Offense
F
Defense
C-
Feel / IQ
F
Playmaking
Below average creator
tap for the data ↓
C
Scoring
Average scorer
tap for the data ↓
F
Rebounding
Below average on the glass
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A
3PT / spacing
Elite spacing
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D
Perimeter D
Below average on the perimeter
tap for the data ↓
F
Paint / rim D
Below average at the rim
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C+
Clutch
Average late
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C
Athleticism
Average tools
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C-
Basketball IQ
Reads the game
tap for the data ↓
A+
Durability
Availability
tap for the data ↓
Act II

Where Duncan Robinson stands

Live ladders from the Balladex models, and what he's chasing. Rankings recompute nightly from real production, accolades, and search demand.

The laddersmodel · recomputes nightly
1
Nikola Jokić DEN
29%
2
Luka Doncic LAL
20%
3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA
4%
5
Victor Wembanyama SAS
3%
6
Anthony Edwards MIN
2%
7
Tyrese Maxey PHI
2%
8
Jamal Murray DEN
2%
Balladex Consensus: #266 of 384 — a blend of the Impact index, current production, career résumé and live search demand. Recomputes as the data does.
Futures & chases
<1%MVP odds
51Impact index
125Star score
Career scoring average11.5 ppg
Seasons in the index8
Accolades on file1
2× NBA Finalist (2020, 2023)
Stat explorer

Duncan Robinson — every number, three levels deep

Headline → metric → the raw history behind it. Real career data; tracking-only metrics labeled.

C
Scoring
12.2 PPG
drill in ↓
F
Playmaking
2.1 APG
drill in ↓
F
Rebounding
2.7 RPG
drill in ↓
A
Shooting
.410 3P%
drill in ↓
The engine

How the model sees Duncan Robinson

Projection = per-minute rate × projected minutes. Rates are recency- and health-weighted, aged along a per-stat curve, and adjusted for live usage/role. No black box — every number shows its work.

Projected 2026-27  87% confidence
12.5
pts
11.3–13.7
2.7
reb
2.3–3.1
2.1
ast
1.7–2.5
27.9
min
proj
75
gp
health
.443
fg%
~base
.396
3p%
~base
Bands widen as confidence drops. Derived live from the real 8-season history below.
What moves the points line vs last season
Last season 12.2 → projected 12.5 PPG
Minutes / role
+0.2
Development (his trend)
+0.0
Age curve
-0.2
Live context
+0.2
Net vs last season+0.3 PPG
Everything it reads
📊
8 seasons of per-minute rates
every box line, minutes-normalized
real
Recency × games-played weight
recent, healthy seasons anchor the baseline
auto
📈
Weighted least-squares trend
his own trajectory, read season over season
+dev
🕰
Per-stat aging curves
age 32 — applied per stat
curve
🔌
Live role context
usage & role shifts fold in when the feed is present
+ctx
🏥
Durability signal
GP last 3: 68 / 74 / 77 → games & confidence
health
The real history it trains onsource: Basketball-Reference · verified

Duncan Robinson career stats, season by season

Career stats by season
SeasonGPMINPTSREBASTFG%3P%
2018-191510.73.31.30.3.391.286
2019-207329.713.53.21.4.470.446
2020-217231.413.13.51.8.439.408
2021-227925.910.92.61.6.399.372
2022-234216.46.41.61.1.371.328
2023-246828.012.92.52.8.450.395
2024-257424.111.02.32.4.437.393
2025-267727.412.22.72.1.456.410
Career50026.211.52.71.9
Source: Basketball-Reference. Backtested against completed player-seasons in the index. The same engine powers Tonight's projection, EraLab, and the role simulator — one model, asked different questions. Illustrative.
Act III

The Lab

Every number, live and interactive. Real career data; models labeled.

Gold = MVP / Championship season · hover any bar. Real per-game data; per-36 & totals derived.
EraLab · the stat time machinenovel
Re-express a season in today's pace-and-space.
raw PPG
in 2026 pace
why
Scoring map · clickable zonesShotChart
Team-tinted. Modeled where tracking data is absent.
Role simulatorpowered by GM engine
Change the roster around him — his projection updates live.
Projected line shifts to — usage , assists rise as primary initiator. Title odds . Illustrative.
Context

Are the Detroit Pistons built to win?

Team projection rolled up from the roster + last-season baselines — and what it means for his role.

64–18proj record
#1conf seed
+9net rtg
117.6off rtg
108.6def rtg
99%playoff odds
Roster delta · what changed
Aggressive hedge & help — Hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side. Core trending improving. Defensive anchors: Ausar Thompson, Javonte Green.
How his role moves
Projected 64–18, 1st in the East. Real team projection from the roster + last-season baselines. His usage, minutes and creation load move with roster health.
Balladex Impact
51 of 99
Rotation piece tier.
Rarity
◆ Rated
Collectible tier.
Résumé
1 accolades
2× NBA Finalist (2020, 2023)
Act IV

The Ballad of Duncan Robinson

Birth to now — the making of a legend, narrated and scored.

Apr 22, 1994

The beginning

The Division III walk-on who became the fastest man to 500 NBA threes — an elite movement shooter, now in Detroit.

Detroit Pistons

Turning pro

Drafted Undrafted, 2018 as a Forward.

true

A Division III walk-on who became the fastest man to 500 NBA threes — and one of the game's best shooters.

Chapter

From tiny Williams College to Michigan to undrafted in 2018, Robinson signed with Miami and rewrote the long-shot script.

Chapter

He reached two NBA Finals with the Heat (2020, 2023), set the record as the fastest to 500 threes, and became the highest-paid undrafted player ever.

Off the court

Measurables ESPN
Active
Height
6' 7"
Weight
215 lbs
College
Michigan
Experience
8th Season
NBA debut
2018
Draft
Undrafted, 2018
Born
York, Maine
Age
32
Jersey
#55
Beyond the game

Robinson's story is the ultimate long shot — the first Williams College player and the first Division III player since Devean George to reach the NBA. Fittingly, he named his podcast 'The Long Shot Pod.' He was WSJ's 'most improbable player in the NBA,' a walk-on-level prospect who willed himself into one of the best shooters on the planet through relentless work.

His life has also known real loss. His younger brother Eli died by suicide in 2025 following a schizophrenia diagnosis, and Robinson responded by establishing the Robinson Family Foundation to support mental health — turning private grief into public advocacy. It is the defining chapter of a player long defined by resilience.

The person

A relentless, cerebral movement shooter — the improbable D-III-to-NBA marksman.

Elite shooterFastest player ever to 500 (and 1,000) made threes; career ~40% from deep.
Movement gravityBends defenses running off screens without touching the ball.
ResilientA Division III walk-on who became the highest-paid undrafted player ever.
Verified profiles & sources
FAQ

Duncan Robinson — frequently asked

The questions people ask most about Duncan Robinson, answered.

How did Duncan Robinson reach the NBA?
He played at Division III Williams College, transferred to Michigan, went undrafted in 2018, and signed with Miami — becoming the first D-III player since Devean George to reach the NBA.
What record does Duncan Robinson hold?
He is the fastest player in NBA history to make 500 three-pointers (in 152 games), among other 'fastest to' three-point marks.
How did Duncan Robinson join the Pistons?
Via a July 2025 sign-and-trade from Miami for Simone Fontecchio, on a three-year, $48 million deal.
Duncan Robinson career stats & accolades are real, and team projections and recent-game home/away splits are computed from real production. DNA ratings, grades, tonight's projection, ladders, live win probability and simulator outputs are Balladex model output. Not affiliated with the NBA.
✦ Companion
Ask about Duncan Robinson

Availability & durability

games played vs season length
Career availability
79%
8 seasons
Last 3 seasons
89%
27 games missed
Games missed
137
career, schedule-adj.
Durability
Durable
improving
Availability by season
15
18-19
73
19-20
72
20-21
79
21-22
42
22-23
68
23-24
74
24-25
77
25-26

Durable. Availability trend is improving89% of games over the last three seasons, low of 18% in 2018-19.

Availability = games played ÷ season length (schedule-adjusted for lockout and COVID seasons). A durability signal from real game data, not a medical assessment.

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