The short answer. The Balladex projection model's #1 fantasy running back for 2027 is Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions) — projected for 23.9 PPR fantasy points per game, an ADP around round 1. Rounding out the top five: Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook III.
Top running backs · 2027 projected
Ranked by projected PPR points per game and value over replacement. Tap any player for his full projection.
| # | Player | Team | Projected line | Proj PPG | VOR | ADP Rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jahmyr Gibbs |  DET | 1,529 rush · 82 rec · 14 TD | 23.9 | +14.2 | 1 |
| 2 |  Bijan Robinson |  ATL | 1,755 rush · 72 rec · 9 TD | 21.8 | +12.1 | 1 |
| 3 |  Kyren Williams |  LAR | 1,207 rush · 61 rec · 10 TD | 18.1 | +8.3 | 1 |
| 4 |  Jonathan Taylor |  IND | 1,430 rush · 38 rec · 14 TD | 17.4 | +7.7 | 1 |
| 5 |  James Cook III |  BUF | 1,481 rush · 28 rec · 11 TD | 16.4 | +6.7 | 2 |
| 6 |  Christian McCaffrey |  SF | 849 rush · 69 rec · 8 TD | 16.2 | +6.5 | 2 |
| 7 |  Ashton Jeanty |  LV | 1,023 rush · 69 rec · 6 TD | 15.6 | +5.9 | 2 |
| 8 |  Kenneth Walker III |  KC | 1,199 rush · 50 rec · 7 TD | 15.4 | +5.7 | 2 |
| 9 |  Javonte Williams |  DAL | 949 rush · 48 rec · 13 TD | 14.9 | +5.2 | 2 |
| 10 |  Bucky Irving |  TB | 1,255 rush · 51 rec · 4 TD | 14.5 | +4.8 | 2 |
| 11 |  Chase Brown |  CIN | 952 rush · 66 rec · 6 TD | 14.5 | +4.7 | 3 |
| 12 |  Omarion Hampton |  LAC | 1,032 rush · 47 rec · 9 TD | 14.3 | +4.6 | 3 |
| 13 |  D'Andre Swift |  CHI | 1,042 rush · 39 rec · 9 TD | 14.2 | +4.4 | 3 |
| 14 |  Saquon Barkley |  PHI | 1,337 rush · 28 rec · 7 TD | 13.8 | +4.1 | 3 |
| 15 |  Cam Skattebo |  NYG | 961 rush · 46 rec · 8 TD | 13.7 | +4.0 | 3 |
Method. A Balladex model estimate (illustrative), not a guarantee: each player projected forward from his last three seasons, bent along a position aging curve and availability, TDs regressed toward red-zone opportunity, defensive scheme and weekly matchups folded in, scored PPR and ranked by value over replacement. See the full 2027 draft board, the weekly start/sit & streamers board, matchups grid, and the model's sleepers & busts.