Who is the NBA MVP favorite right now?

Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets, at 30% by the Balladex model.

How are the MVP odds calculated?

Each contender's score blends recent per-game production, talent ceiling, an age/prime curve, team strength from live standings, availability (games played) and proven MVP/All-NBA pedigree — then the field is turned into probabilities so they read like real odds. It is a Balladex model estimate.

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MVP odds · Live

Who will win NBA MVP?

The current favorite and the rest of the top five, with live model odds. As of July 28, 2026.

The short answer. The NBA MVP favorite right now is Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets) at 30% on Balladex's model. Behind them: Luka Doncic (21%), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (7%), Giannis Antetokounmpo (4%), Victor Wembanyama (4%).

MVP top five live

The favorites by our model. See the full ladder for all 25 contenders.

Full MVP race →

NBA MVP favorites by the Balladex model — as of July 28, 2026.
#	Player	Team	Per game	MVP odds
1	Nikola Jokić	DEN	27.7 / 12.9 / 10.7 PPG/RPG/APG	30%
2	Luka Doncic	LAL	33.5 / 7.7 / 8.3 PPG/RPG/APG	21%
3	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	OKC	31.1 / 4.3 / 6.6 PPG/RPG/APG	7%
4	Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIA	27.6 / 9.8 / 5.4 PPG/RPG/APG	4%
5	Victor Wembanyama	SAS	25 / 11.5 / 3.1 PPG/RPG/APG	4%

Method. MVP odds are a Balladex model estimate (illustrative): recent production, talent ceiling, an age/prime curve, team strength (live standings), availability and proven pedigree, calibrated into probabilities across the field. See the complete MVP race, the best players right now, and title favorites.