The short answer. The NBA MVP favorite right now is Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets) at 27% on Balladex's model. Behind them: Luka Doncic (19%), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (10%), Giannis Antetokounmpo (6%), Victor Wembanyama (3%).
MVP top five
The favorites by our model. See the full ladder for all 25 contenders.
| # | Player | Team | Per game | MVP odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nikola Jokić |  DEN | 27.7 / 12.9 / 10.7 PPG/RPG/APG | 27% |
| 2 |  Luka Doncic |  LAL | 33.5 / 7.7 / 8.3 PPG/RPG/APG | 19% |
| 3 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |  OKC | 31.1 / 4.3 / 6.6 PPG/RPG/APG | 10% |
| 4 |  Giannis Antetokounmpo |  MIA | 27.6 / 9.8 / 5.4 PPG/RPG/APG | 6% |
| 5 |  Victor Wembanyama |  SAS | 25 / 11.5 / 3.1 PPG/RPG/APG | 3% |
Method. MVP odds are a Balladex model estimate (illustrative): recent production, talent ceiling, an age/prime curve, team strength (live standings), availability and proven pedigree, calibrated into probabilities across the field. See the complete MVP race, the best players right now, and title favorites.