The short answer. The current NFL MVP favorite is Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) at 29% by the Balladex model — 1,214 pass yds, 9 TD, 0 INT this season. The rest of the top five: Bryce Young, Brock Purdy, Tyler Shough, Kirk Cousins.
MVP race · top 10 live
By the Balladex model. Tap any player for their full page.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Season line | MVP odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jared Goff |  DET | Quarterback | 1,214 pass yds, 9 TD, 0 INT | 29% |
| 2 |  Bryce Young |  CAR | Quarterback | 1,268 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT | 23% |
| 3 |  Brock Purdy |  SF | Quarterback | 1,007 pass yds, 11 TD, 1 INT | 22% |
| 4 |  Tyler Shough |  NO | Quarterback | 1,203 pass yds, 9 TD, 3 INT | 11% |
| 5 |  Kirk Cousins |  LV | Quarterback | 1,026 pass yds, 11 TD, 4 INT | 9% |
| 6 |  Patrick Mahomes |  KC | Quarterback | 1,037 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT | 3% |
| 7 |  Dak Prescott |  DAL | Quarterback | 1,065 pass yds, 8 TD, 1 INT | 2% |
| 8 |  Joe Burrow |  CIN | Quarterback | 1,171 pass yds, 7 TD, 3 INT | <1% |
| 9 |  Jordan Love |  GB | Quarterback | 1,041 pass yds, 8 TD, 3 INT | <1% |
| 10 |  Jaxon Smith-Njigba |  SEA | Wide Receiver | 32 rec, 481 yds, 6 TD | <1% |
Method. Contenders are scored on real season production with quarterbacks weighted above skill players (as MVP voting is), then calibrated to odds across the field — a Balladex model estimate, not sportsbook odds. See the full MVP race, power rankings, and award ladders.