The short answer. The current NFL MVP favorite is Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) at 59% by the Balladex model — 4,707 pass yds, 46 TD, 8 INT this season. The rest of the top five: Jared Goff, Drake Maye, Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence.
MVP race · top 10 live
By the Balladex model. Tap any player for their full page.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Season line | MVP odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Matthew Stafford |  LAR | Quarterback | 4,707 pass yds, 46 TD, 8 INT | 59% |
| 2 |  Jared Goff |  DET | Quarterback | 4,564 pass yds, 34 TD, 8 INT | 19% |
| 3 |  Drake Maye |  NE | Quarterback | 4,394 pass yds, 31 TD, 8 INT | 10% |
| 4 |  Dak Prescott |  DAL | Quarterback | 4,552 pass yds, 30 TD, 10 INT | 9% |
| 5 |  Trevor Lawrence |  JAX | Quarterback | 4,007 pass yds, 29 TD, 12 INT | 2% |
| 6 |  Caleb Williams |  CHI | Quarterback | 3,942 pass yds, 27 TD, 7 INT | 2% |
| 7 |  Bo Nix |  DEN | Quarterback | 3,931 pass yds, 25 TD, 11 INT | <1% |
| 8 |  Sam Darnold |  SEA | Quarterback | 4,048 pass yds, 25 TD, 14 INT | <1% |
| 9 |  Baker Mayfield |  TB | Quarterback | 3,693 pass yds, 26 TD, 11 INT | <1% |
| 10 |  Christian McCaffrey |  SF | Running Back | 1,202 rush yds, 10 TD | <1% |
Method. Contenders are scored on real season production with quarterbacks weighted above skill players (as MVP voting is), then calibrated to odds across the field — a Balladex model estimate, not sportsbook odds. See the full MVP race, power rankings, and award ladders.