Not last year's stats — next season projected. Every player is forecast forward (recency-weighted production bent along an aging curve), scored points-league, and ranked by value over replacement so positional scarcity — a scarce center vs a deep guard pool — is priced in. Then tiers, ADP rounds, and the sleepers, breakouts and busts our model sees coming.
Draft-winning edges: who's climbing, who's falling, and who's going later than they should.
Jalen Green
Paolo Banchero
Scoot Henderson
Cooper Flagg
Jalen Duren
Amen Thompson
Stephon Castle
Darius Garland
James Harden
Kevin Durant
Stephen Curry
LeBron JamesValue drops off a cliff at different points by position. Taller bars = more value over replacement; that's your draft urgency.
Ranked by projected value over replacement. Tiers mark natural talent cliffs; draft the last player in a tier before it breaks.
| # | Player | Pos | Projected line | FPPG | VOR | Rd | Trend | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 · picks 1–1 · round 1 | ||||||||
| 1 | Luka Doncic | G1 | 31.8 PPG · 8.2 RPG · 8.4 APG | 54.1 | +29.9 | 1 | Steady | 92 |
| Tier 2 · picks 2–2 · round 1 | ||||||||
| 2 | Nikola Jokić | C1 | 24.7 PPG · 11.2 RPG · 9.0 APG | 51.7 | +26.2 | 1 | Regression | 83 |
| Tier 3 · picks 3–120 · round 1–10 | ||||||||
| 3 | Cade Cunningham | G2 | 25.0 PPG · 5.6 RPG · 9.5 APG | 46.0 | +21.7 | 1 | Steady | 87 |
| 4 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | G3 | 30.5 PPG · 4.6 RPG · 6.3 APG | 45.4 | +21.2 | 1 | Steady | 83 |
| 5 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | F1 | 24.6 PPG · 9.2 RPG · 5.1 APG | 43.2 | +20.8 | 1 | Regression | 82 |
| 6 | Jalen Johnson | F2 | 20.7 PPG · 10.2 RPG · 6.4 APG | 42.5 | +20.1 | 1 | Regression | 84 |
| 7 | Jayson Tatum | F3 | 23.6 PPG · 9.0 RPG · 5.3 APG | 42.3 | +19.9 | 1 | Steady | 83 |
| 8 | Paolo Banchero | F4 | 24.3 PPG · 8.1 RPG · 5.3 APG | 42.0 | +19.6 | 1 | Breakout | 83 |
| 9 | Victor Wembanyama | C2 | 25.3 PPG · 11.7 RPG · 3.6 APG | 44.8 | +19.2 | 1 | Rising | 78 |
| 10 | Tyrese Maxey | G4 | 27.6 PPG · 3.8 RPG · 6.4 APG | 41.8 | +17.5 | 1 | Steady | 93 |
| 11 | Anthony Edwards | G5 | 28.6 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 4.3 APG | 41.6 | +17.3 | 1 | Rising | 94 |
| 12 | LaMelo Ball | G6 | 23.0 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 7.5 APG | 40.3 | +16.0 | 1 | Rising | 92 |
| 13 | Alperen Sengun | C3 | 20.8 PPG · 9.8 RPG · 5.8 APG | 41.2 | +15.6 | 2 | Steady | 89 |
| 14 | Scottie Barnes | F5 | 19.3 PPG · 7.9 RPG · 6.0 APG | 37.8 | +15.4 | 2 | Rising | 88 |
| 15 | Cooper Flagg | F6 | 22.0 PPG · 7.0 RPG · 4.7 APG | 37.5 | +15.1 | 2 | Breakout | 69 |
| 16 | Deni Avdija | F7 | 20.7 PPG · 7.3 RPG · 5.4 APG | 37.5 | +15.1 | 2 | Regression | 89 |
| 17 | Tyrese Haliburton | G7 | 19.7 PPG · 3.7 RPG · 10.1 APG | 39.3 | +15.0 | 2 | Rising | 87 |
| 18 | Trae Young | G8 | 21.3 PPG · 2.2 RPG · 9.8 APG | 38.7 | +14.4 | 2 | Rising | 80 |
| 19 | Zion Williamson | F8 | 22.8 PPG · 6.3 RPG · 4.3 APG | 36.7 | +14.3 | 2 | Rising | 91 |
| 20 | Jaylen Brown | F9 | 23.3 PPG · 5.7 RPG · 4.2 APG | 36.5 | +14.1 | 2 | Regression | 81 |
| 21 | Ja Morant | G9 | 21.7 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 7.8 APG | 38.2 | +13.9 | 2 | Rising | 91 |
| 22 | Josh Giddey | G10 | 16.0 PPG · 8.2 RPG · 8.0 APG | 37.9 | +13.6 | 2 | Steady | 84 |
| 23 | Devin Booker | G11 | 23.8 PPG · 3.7 RPG · 5.9 APG | 37.1 | +12.8 | 2 | Steady | 83 |
| 24 | Jalen Brunson | G12 | 24.1 PPG · 2.9 RPG · 6.3 APG | 37.1 | +12.8 | 2 | Regression | 83 |
| 25 | Evan Mobley | F10 | 18.3 PPG · 9.4 RPG · 3.5 APG | 34.8 | +12.4 | 3 | Steady | 88 |
| 26 | Donovan Mitchell | G13 | 24.0 PPG · 4.2 RPG · 5.0 APG | 36.6 | +12.3 | 3 | Regression | 82 |
| 27 | Franz Wagner | F11 | 22.2 PPG · 5.5 RPG · 3.9 APG | 34.7 | +12.3 | 3 | Rising | 86 |
| 28 | Jamal Murray | G14 | 22.0 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 6.2 APG | 36.0 | +11.8 | 3 | Regression | 82 |
| 29 | Joel Embiid | C4 | 23.1 PPG · 7.2 RPG · 3.7 APG | 37.3 | +11.7 | 3 | Regression | 79 |
| 30 | Domantas Sabonis | C5 | 15.9 PPG · 11.5 RPG · 4.9 APG | 37.1 | +11.5 | 3 | Rising | 80 |
| 31 | Tyler Herro | G15 | 21.9 PPG · 5.1 RPG · 4.7 APG | 35.1 | +10.8 | 3 | Rising | 92 |
| 32 | Jalen Williams | F12 | 19.4 PPG · 4.8 RPG · 5.3 APG | 33.2 | +10.8 | 3 | Rising | 82 |
| 33 | Anthony Davis | F13 | 18.2 PPG · 9.2 RPG · 2.5 APG | 33.0 | +10.6 | 3 | Regression | 82 |
| 34 | Brandon Ingram | F14 | 20.3 PPG · 5.2 RPG · 4.3 APG | 32.9 | +10.5 | 3 | Steady | 83 |
| 35 | Lauri Markkanen | F15 | 22.1 PPG · 6.4 RPG · 1.8 APG | 32.4 | +10.0 | 3 | Regression | 80 |
| 36 | RJ Barrett | F16 | 20.0 PPG · 5.5 RPG · 3.9 APG | 32.4 | +10.0 | 3 | Rising | 90 |
| 37 | De'Aaron Fox | G16 | 20.7 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 5.7 APG | 34.2 | +9.9 | 4 | Rising | 81 |
| 38 | Karl-Anthony Towns | C6 | 19.2 PPG · 10.2 RPG · 2.7 APG | 35.5 | +9.9 | 4 | Regression | 81 |
| 39 | Trey Murphy III | F17 | 20.5 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 3.5 APG | 32.3 | +9.9 | 4 | Steady | 85 |
| 40 | Michael Porter Jr. | F18 | 20.3 PPG · 6.8 RPG · 2.4 APG | 32.1 | +9.7 | 4 | Regression | 80 |
| 41 | Keyonte George | G17 | 20.5 PPG · 3.8 RPG · 5.9 APG | 33.9 | +9.6 | 4 | Regression | 73 |
| 42 | Austin Reaves | G18 | 20.4 PPG · 4.4 RPG · 5.4 APG | 33.9 | +9.6 | 4 | Regression | 76 |
| 43 | Brandon Miller | F19 | 20.7 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 3.4 APG | 31.7 | +9.3 | 4 | Steady | 76 |
| 44 | Kon Knueppel | F20 | 19.4 PPG · 5.6 RPG · 3.6 APG | 31.4 | +9.0 | 4 | Rising | 69 |
| 45 | Bam Adebayo | C7 | 18.1 PPG · 9.3 RPG · 3.5 APG | 34.5 | +9.0 | 4 | Steady | 83 |
| 46 | Julius Randle | F21 | 17.7 PPG · 6.2 RPG · 4.2 APG | 31.3 | +8.9 | 4 | Regression | 81 |
| 47 | Miles Bridges | F22 | 18.3 PPG · 6.4 RPG · 3.3 APG | 31.0 | +8.6 | 4 | Rising | 81 |
| 48 | Amen Thompson | G19 | 16.2 PPG · 8.1 RPG · 4.6 APG | 32.7 | +8.5 | 4 | Steady | 73 |
| 49 | Stephon Castle | G20 | 16.8 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 6.6 APG | 32.7 | +8.4 | 5 | Steady | 70 |
| 50 | Pascal Siakam | F23 | 19.1 PPG · 5.7 RPG · 3.3 APG | 30.8 | +8.4 | 5 | Regression | 83 |
| 51 | Darius Garland | G21 | 19.1 PPG · 2.6 RPG · 6.8 APG | 32.5 | +8.3 | 5 | Rising | 93 |
| 52 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | F24 | 20.8 PPG · 5.7 RPG · 2.0 APG | 30.6 | +8.2 | 5 | Rising | 93 |
| 53 | Jalen Duren | C8 | 16.8 PPG · 11.1 RPG · 2.4 APG | 33.7 | +8.1 | 5 | Steady | 81 |
| 54 | Desmond Bane | G22 | 19.8 PPG · 4.7 RPG · 4.6 APG | 32.3 | +8.0 | 5 | Rising | 82 |
| 55 | Chet Holmgren | F25 | 16.9 PPG · 8.7 RPG · 2.0 APG | 30.3 | +7.9 | 5 | Steady | 78 |
| 56 | Dejounte Murray | G23 | 16.3 PPG · 5.2 RPG · 6.1 APG | 31.8 | +7.5 | 5 | Steady | 82 |
| 57 | Coby White | G24 | 19.5 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 4.8 APG | 31.3 | +7.0 | 5 | Rising | 93 |
| 58 | VJ Edgecombe | G25 | 16.8 PPG · 5.9 RPG · 4.4 APG | 30.4 | +6.1 | 5 | Rising | 69 |
| 59 | Shaedon Sharpe | G26 | 20.1 PPG · 4.7 RPG · 2.8 APG | 30.0 | +5.8 | 5 | Steady | 82 |
| 60 | Jalen Green | G27 | 19.9 PPG · 4.4 RPG · 3.2 APG | 29.9 | +5.7 | 5 | Breakout | 87 |
| 61 | Kevin Porter Jr. | G28 | 15.2 PPG · 4.7 RPG · 5.8 APG | 29.5 | +5.3 | 6 | Regression | 86 |
| 62 | Bennedict Mathurin | F26 | 17.3 PPG · 5.3 RPG · 2.2 APG | 27.0 | +4.6 | 6 | Steady | 81 |
| 63 | Immanuel Quickley | G29 | 16.4 PPG · 3.6 RPG · 5.3 APG | 28.7 | +4.4 | 6 | Steady | 90 |
| 64 | Ivica Zubac | C9 | 13.9 PPG · 10.6 RPG · 2.1 APG | 29.7 | +4.1 | 6 | Steady | 80 |
| 65 | Jabari Smith Jr. | F27 | 14.9 PPG · 7.5 RPG · 1.7 APG | 26.4 | +4.0 | 6 | Steady | 82 |
| 66 | Cam Thomas | G30 | 20.0 PPG · 2.6 RPG · 3.4 APG | 28.2 | +3.9 | 6 | Rising | 84 |
| 67 | Josh Hart | F28 | 10.6 PPG · 7.3 RPG · 4.4 APG | 26.1 | +3.7 | 6 | Steady | 80 |
| 68 | Kawhi Leonard | F29 | 17.2 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 2.4 APG | 25.9 | +3.5 | 6 | Regression | 81 |
| 69 | Saddiq Bey | F30 | 15.9 PPG · 5.8 RPG · 2.0 APG | 25.8 | +3.4 | 6 | Steady | 86 |
| 70 | Alex Sarr | C10 | 15.9 PPG · 7.4 RPG · 2.7 APG | 28.9 | +3.4 | 6 | Steady | 71 |
| 71 | Dyson Daniels | G31 | 12.2 PPG · 6.3 RPG · 5.1 APG | 27.4 | +3.1 | 6 | Steady | 76 |
| 72 | Santi Aldama | F31 | 13.3 PPG · 6.6 RPG · 2.9 APG | 25.5 | +3.1 | 6 | Steady | 86 |
| 73 | Kyshawn George | F32 | 13.4 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 4.0 APG | 25.4 | +3.0 | 7 | Steady | 67 |
| 74 | Jarrett Allen | C11 | 14.5 PPG · 9.0 RPG · 1.9 APG | 28.1 | +2.6 | 7 | Steady | 82 |
| 75 | P.J. Washington | F33 | 13.8 PPG · 6.8 RPG · 2.0 APG | 24.9 | +2.5 | 7 | Steady | 82 |
| 76 | Zach LaVine | G32 | 18.3 PPG · 3.4 RPG · 2.9 APG | 26.8 | +2.5 | 7 | Steady | 80 |
| 77 | Damian Lillard | G33 | 16.4 PPG · 2.9 RPG · 4.5 APG | 26.7 | +2.4 | 7 | Regression | 81 |
| 78 | Jonathan Kuminga | F34 | 14.3 PPG · 5.5 RPG · 2.4 APG | 24.6 | +2.2 | 7 | Breakout | 88 |
| 79 | OG Anunoby | F35 | 15.9 PPG · 4.6 RPG · 2.1 APG | 24.5 | +2.1 | 7 | Steady | 82 |
| 80 | Andrew Nembhard | G34 | 13.5 PPG · 2.9 RPG · 6.3 APG | 26.3 | +2.1 | 7 | Regression | 77 |
| 81 | Jalen Suggs | G35 | 14.7 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 4.5 APG | 26.2 | +2.0 | 7 | Steady | 85 |
| 82 | John Collins | F36 | 14.7 PPG · 6.4 RPG · 1.3 APG | 24.3 | +1.9 | 7 | Rising | 79 |
| 83 | Anfernee Simons | G36 | 17.3 PPG · 2.7 RPG · 3.7 APG | 26.1 | +1.8 | 7 | Rising | 88 |
| 84 | Cedric Coward | G37 | 14.3 PPG · 6.2 RPG · 2.9 APG | 26.1 | +1.8 | 7 | Rising | 69 |
| 85 | Onyeka Okongwu | C12 | 13.9 PPG · 8.0 RPG · 2.6 APG | 27.4 | +1.8 | 8 | Steady | 90 |
| 86 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | F37 | 12.9 PPG · 4.7 RPG · 3.7 APG | 24.1 | +1.7 | 8 | Regression | 73 |
| 87 | Mikal Bridges | F38 | 14.9 PPG · 3.4 RPG · 3.4 APG | 23.9 | +1.5 | 8 | Steady | 81 |
| 88 | Derik Queen | C13 | 12.3 PPG · 7.4 RPG · 3.9 APG | 27.0 | +1.4 | 8 | Rising | 69 |
| 89 | Zach Edey | C14 | 12.6 PPG · 10.5 RPG · 1.1 APG | 26.9 | +1.3 | 8 | Steady | 69 |
| 90 | Isaiah Collier | G38 | 11.2 PPG · 2.9 RPG · 7.2 APG | 25.5 | +1.3 | 8 | Steady | 72 |
| 91 | Mark Williams | C15 | 13.4 PPG · 9.2 RPG · 1.6 APG | 26.8 | +1.2 | 8 | Rising | 80 |
| 92 | Kyle Filipowski | F39 | 11.3 PPG · 7.2 RPG · 2.5 APG | 23.6 | +1.2 | 8 | Steady | 71 |
| 93 | Keegan Murray | F40 | 13.8 PPG · 6.1 RPG · 1.6 APG | 23.5 | +1.1 | 8 | Steady | 83 |
| 94 | LeBron James | F41 | 12.6 PPG · 3.8 RPG · 4.2 APG | 23.5 | +1.1 | 8 | Regression | 82 |
| 95 | Matas Buzelis | F42 | 14.4 PPG · 5.3 RPG · 1.8 APG | 23.4 | +1.0 | 8 | Steady | 65 |
| 96 | Donovan Clingan | C16 | 10.7 PPG · 10.9 RPG · 1.9 APG | 26.5 | +1.0 | 8 | Steady | 67 |
| 97 | Aaron Gordon | F43 | 13.5 PPG · 4.9 RPG · 2.6 APG | 23.3 | +0.9 | 9 | Regression | 83 |
| 98 | Brandin Podziemski | G39 | 12.9 PPG · 5.5 RPG · 3.8 APG | 25.1 | +0.9 | 9 | Steady | 77 |
| 99 | Payton Pritchard | G40 | 14.4 PPG · 3.6 RPG · 4.2 APG | 25.1 | +0.8 | 9 | Regression | 78 |
| 100 | Jordan Poole | G41 | 16.4 PPG · 2.4 RPG · 3.8 APG | 25.0 | +0.8 | 9 | Rising | 89 |
| 101 | Devin Vassell | G42 | 15.8 PPG · 4.0 RPG · 2.9 APG | 25.0 | +0.8 | 9 | Rising | 90 |
| 102 | Jeremiah Fears | G43 | 15.0 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 3.6 APG | 25.0 | +0.7 | 9 | Rising | 69 |
| 103 | Scoot Henderson | G44 | 14.3 PPG · 3.0 RPG · 4.7 APG | 24.9 | +0.7 | 9 | Breakout | 78 |
| 104 | Derrick White | G45 | 13.8 PPG · 3.7 RPG · 4.4 APG | 24.9 | +0.6 | 9 | Regression | 83 |
| 105 | Kyle Kuzma | F44 | 13.4 PPG · 4.6 RPG · 2.5 APG | 22.8 | +0.4 | 9 | Steady | 78 |
| 106 | Deandre Ayton | C17 | 13.4 PPG · 9.0 RPG · 1.2 APG | 25.9 | +0.4 | 9 | Rising | 80 |
| 107 | Ace Bailey | F45 | 14.5 PPG · 4.4 RPG · 1.9 APG | 22.6 | +0.2 | 9 | Rising | 69 |
| 108 | Kristaps Porzingis | C18 | 16.2 PPG · 5.3 RPG · 2.1 APG | 25.7 | +0.1 | 9 | Steady | 82 |
| 109 | Isaiah Hartenstein | C19 | 9.3 PPG · 9.4 RPG · 3.3 APG | 25.6 | 0.0 | 10 | Steady | 80 |
| 110 | James Harden | G46 | 13.4 PPG · 3.0 RPG · 4.9 APG | 24.3 | 0.0 | 10 | Regression | 81 |
| 111 | Naji Marshall | F46 | 12.8 PPG · 4.4 RPG · 2.9 APG | 22.4 | 0.0 | 10 | Regression | 77 |
| 112 | Jaden McDaniels | F47 | 13.4 PPG · 4.6 RPG · 2.3 APG | 22.3 | -0.1 | 10 | Steady | 89 |
| 113 | Keldon Johnson | F48 | 13.4 PPG · 5.2 RPG · 1.7 APG | 22.3 | -0.1 | 10 | Steady | 91 |
| 114 | Kevin Durant | F49 | 14.5 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 2.5 APG | 22.2 | -0.2 | 10 | Regression | 83 |
| 115 | De'Andre Hunter | F50 | 15.0 PPG · 3.8 RPG · 1.7 APG | 22.1 | -0.3 | 10 | Steady | 82 |
| 116 | Bobby Portis | F51 | 12.1 PPG · 6.4 RPG · 1.5 APG | 22.0 | -0.4 | 10 | Steady | 82 |
| 117 | Andrew Wiggins | F52 | 13.9 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 2.1 APG | 22.0 | -0.4 | 10 | Regression | 81 |
| 118 | Dillon Brooks | F53 | 15.4 PPG · 3.3 RPG · 1.6 APG | 21.7 | -0.7 | 10 | Regression | 79 |
| 119 | Toumani Camara | F54 | 11.9 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 2.2 APG | 21.6 | -0.8 | 10 | Steady | 74 |
| 120 | Maxime Raynaud | C20 | 13.1 PPG · 7.9 RPG · 1.5 APG | 24.7 | -0.8 | 10 | Rising | 69 |
The full positional boards — projected FPPG, value over replacement and draft round.