BALLADEX
Balladex / NFL / MVP Race
The award · Live

The MVP Race.

Every contender ranked by our QB-weighted production model — passing volume, efficiency and scoring, with a real workload required, then calibrated to odds across the field. The MVP is an offensive award, so quarterbacks lead and only a historic skill season breaks in.

29%Favorite · Goff
25Contenders ranked
MVP Ladder live

Top 25 by the Balladex model. The bars show each contender's factor profile.

NFL hub →
1Jared GoffJared GoffQuarterback1,214 yds · 9 TD · 0 INT · 4 G · 108.6 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail29%MVP odds2Bryce YoungBryce YoungQuarterback1,268 yds · 9 TD · 2 INT · 4 G · 100.0 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail23%MVP odds3Brock PurdyBrock PurdyQuarterback1,007 yds · 11 TD · 1 INT · 4 G · 126.2 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail22%MVP odds4Tyler ShoughTyler ShoughQuarterback1,203 yds · 9 TD · 3 INT · 4 G · 95.7 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail11%MVP odds5Kirk CousinsKirk CousinsQuarterback1,026 yds · 11 TD · 4 INT · 4 G · 99.5 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail9%MVP odds6Patrick MahomesPatrick MahomesQuarterback1,037 yds · 9 TD · 2 INT · 4 G · 106.2 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail3%MVP odds7Dak PrescottDak PrescottQuarterback1,065 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT · 4 G · 105.0 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail2%MVP odds8Joe BurrowJoe BurrowQuarterback1,171 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT · 4 G · 99.5 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds9Jordan LoveJordan LoveQuarterback1,041 yds · 8 TD · 3 INT · 4 G · 86.5 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds10Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaWide Receiver32 rec · 481 yds · 6 TD · 15.0 y/rVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds11C.J. StroudC.J. StroudQuarterback1,141 yds · 5 TD · 0 INT · 4 G · 95.9 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds12Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsRunning Back353 rush · 5 TD · 22 rec · 540 scrimVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds13CeeDee LambCeeDee LambWide Receiver37 rec · 498 yds · 4 TD · 13.5 y/rVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds14Trevor LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQuarterback843 yds · 8 TD · 2 INT · 4 G · 111.2 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds15Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonRunning Back494 rush · 4 TD · 14 rec · 614 scrimVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds16Lamar JacksonLamar JacksonQuarterback967 yds · 6 TD · 1 INT · 4 G · 119.6 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds17Kenneth Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIRunning Back537 rush · 4 TD · 12 rec · 621 scrimVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds18Aaron RodgersAaron RodgersQuarterback999 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT · 4 G · 81.6 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds19Josh AllenJosh AllenQuarterback1,039 yds · 6 TD · 3 INT · 4 G · 100.1 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds20Matthew StaffordMatthew StaffordQuarterback1,189 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT · 4 G · 80.5 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds21Geno SmithGeno SmithQuarterback902 yds · 5 TD · 0 INT · 4 G · 109.0 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds22Derrick HenryDerrick HenryRunning Back374 rush · 7 TD · 7 rec · 418 scrimVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds23Deshaun WatsonDeshaun WatsonQuarterback855 yds · 6 TD · 2 INT · 4 G · 101.2 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds24Jonathan TaylorJonathan TaylorRunning Back353 rush · 6 TD · 10 rec · 422 scrimVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds25Sam DarnoldSam DarnoldQuarterback560 yds · 6 TD · 3 INT · 3 G · 101.1 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds
How it's calculated. Each contender's score blends passing (or scrimmage) volume, efficiency and scoring from real season production, with quarterbacks weighted well above skill players — as MVP voting has been for over a decade — and a minimum workload required. Scores are turned into probabilities across the field, so they read like real odds. Player facts are real; the model is illustrative. Updated automatically.