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Balladex / NFL / MVP Race
The award · Live

The MVP Race.

Every contender ranked by our QB-weighted production model — passing volume, efficiency and scoring, with a real workload required, then calibrated to odds across the field. The MVP is an offensive award, so quarterbacks lead and only a historic skill season breaks in.

59%Favorite · Stafford
25Contenders ranked
MVP Ladder live

Top 25 by the Balladex model. The bars show each contender's factor profile.

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1Matthew StaffordMatthew StaffordQuarterback4,707 yds · 46 TD · 8 INT · 17 G · 109.2 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail59%MVP odds2Jared GoffJared GoffQuarterback4,564 yds · 34 TD · 8 INT · 17 G · 105.5 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail19%MVP odds3Drake MayeDrake MayeQuarterback4,394 yds · 31 TD · 8 INT · 17 G · 113.5 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail10%MVP odds4Dak PrescottDak PrescottQuarterback4,552 yds · 30 TD · 10 INT · 17 G · 99.5 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail9%MVP odds5Trevor LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQuarterback4,007 yds · 29 TD · 12 INT · 17 G · 91.0 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail2%MVP odds6Caleb WilliamsCaleb WilliamsQuarterback3,942 yds · 27 TD · 7 INT · 17 G · 90.1 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail2%MVP odds7Bo NixBo NixQuarterback3,931 yds · 25 TD · 11 INT · 17 G · 87.8 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds8Sam DarnoldSam DarnoldQuarterback4,048 yds · 25 TD · 14 INT · 17 G · 99.1 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds9Baker MayfieldBaker MayfieldQuarterback3,693 yds · 26 TD · 11 INT · 17 G · 90.6 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds10Christian McCaffreyChristian McCaffreyRunning Back1,202 rush · 10 TD · 102 rec · 2,126 scrimVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds11Justin HerbertJustin HerbertQuarterback3,727 yds · 26 TD · 13 INT · 16 G · 94.1 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds12Josh AllenJosh AllenQuarterback3,668 yds · 25 TD · 10 INT · 17 G · 102.2 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds13Jalen HurtsJalen HurtsQuarterback3,224 yds · 25 TD · 6 INT · 16 G · 98.5 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds14Jordan LoveJordan LoveQuarterback3,381 yds · 23 TD · 6 INT · 15 G · 101.2 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds15Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonRunning Back1,478 rush · 7 TD · 79 rec · 2,298 scrimVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds16Aaron RodgersAaron RodgersQuarterback3,322 yds · 24 TD · 7 INT · 16 G · 94.8 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds17Jonathan TaylorJonathan TaylorRunning Back1,585 rush · 18 TD · 46 rec · 1,963 scrimVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds18Jacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettQuarterback3,366 yds · 23 TD · 8 INT · 14 G · 94.1 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds19Patrick MahomesPatrick MahomesQuarterback3,587 yds · 22 TD · 11 INT · 14 G · 89.6 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds20Puka NacuaPuka NacuaWide Receiver129 rec · 1,715 yds · 10 TD · 13.3 y/rVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds21Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaWide Receiver119 rec · 1,793 yds · 10 TD · 15.1 y/rVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds22Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsRunning Back1,223 rush · 13 TD · 77 rec · 1,839 scrimVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds23Bryce YoungBryce YoungQuarterback3,011 yds · 23 TD · 11 INT · 16 G · 87.8 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds24Amon-Ra St. BrownAmon-Ra St. BrownWide Receiver117 rec · 1,401 yds · 11 TD · 12.0 y/rVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds25Daniel JonesDaniel JonesQuarterback3,101 yds · 19 TD · 8 INT · 13 G · 100.2 rtgVolumeScoringEfficiencyAvail<1%MVP odds
How it's calculated. Each contender's score blends passing (or scrimmage) volume, efficiency and scoring from real season production, with quarterbacks weighted well above skill players — as MVP voting has been for over a decade — and a minimum workload required. Scores are turned into probabilities across the field, so they read like real odds. Player facts are real; the model is illustrative. Updated automatically.