Matchup model · Friday, October 9, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.9 | 25.6 | 27 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 11.6 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 9.5 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48 | 42.8 | 48 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 38.5 | 34.6 | 38.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 36.4 | 33.7 | 36.5 | 30% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Johnson draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 18 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.9 vs season). Model lines Johnson at 25.6 pts (range 21.7–29.5) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (62%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25 | 23.4 | 25 | 34% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4 | 4 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.9 | 30.3 | 33 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.8 | 26.3 | 29 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.1 | 27.4 | 29 | 35% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.8 vs season). Model lines Alexander-Walker at 23.4 pts (range 19.8–26.9) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (34%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (62%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 26.4 | 28.5 | 32% | Under |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 40.1 | 44.5 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.9 | 36.3 | 41 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.8 | 30.2 | 32 | 36% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Victor Wembanyama draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Onyeka Okongwu (strong defender, 78 Rim protection), Jalen Johnson secondary, with Dyson Daniels as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-11.3 vs season). Model lines Wembanyama at 26.4 pts (range 22.4–30.5) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (32%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (62%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.1 | 18.8 | 19 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 5 | 6.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 9.4 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 32.7 | 35 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 23.8 | 25.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.5 | 27.7 | 28.5 | 43% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Stephon Castle draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.9 vs season). Model lines Castle at 18.8 pts (range 16–21.7) vs a 19 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (62%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 100.2 pace.