Matchup model · Friday, October 9, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.3 | 25 | 24.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5 | 3.9 | 5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.9 | 33 | 34 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.3 | 28.9 | 29.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.9 | 29.1 | 29 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Kevin Durant draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Durant at 25 pts (range 21.1–28.8) vs a 24.5 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (52%), projected 118–119, ~237 total at 99 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 22.3 | 22 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 9.2 | 7.1 | 9 | 12% | Under |
| Assists | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.4 | 37 | 38.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.4 | 29.4 | 31.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.2 | 29.8 | 29 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Alperen Sengun draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Daniel Gafford (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Dereck Lively II secondary, with Max Christie as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 19.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-3 vs season). Model lines Sengun at 22.3 pts (range 18.9–25.7) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (52%), projected 118–119, ~237 total at 99 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.4 | 22.3 | 23.5 | 38% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 21% | Under |
| Assists | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.3 | 30.2 | 32.5 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28 | 25.9 | 28 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.7 | 26.6 | 27.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Kyrie Irving draws Houston Rockets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Fred VanVleet secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.2 vs season). Model lines Irving at 22.3 pts (range 18.9–25.8) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (38%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (52%), projected 119–118, ~237 total at 99 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 18.9 | 21 | 26% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.2 | 28.1 | 32 | 16% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.7 | 24.1 | 27.5 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.5 | 23 | 25.5 | 24% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Cooper Flagg draws Houston Rockets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Fred VanVleet secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11 pts a night over his last 5 (-10 vs season). Model lines Flagg at 18.9 pts (range 16–21.8) vs a 21 line — an uphill case to clear it (26%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (52%), projected 119–118, ~237 total at 99 pace.