Matchup model · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.9 | 26 | 27 | 41% | Under |
| Rebounds | 11.6 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 12% | Under |
| Assists | 9.5 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48 | 43.5 | 48 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 38.5 | 35.2 | 38.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 36.4 | 34.3 | 36.5 | 35% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Johnson draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 18 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.9 vs season). Model lines Johnson at 26 pts (range 22–30) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (41%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (52%), projected 120–120, ~240 total at 100.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.9 | 23.7 | 25 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.9 | 30.8 | 33 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.7 | 26.7 | 28.5 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.1 | 27.8 | 29 | 40% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.7 vs season). Model lines Alexander-Walker at 23.7 pts (range 20.1–27.3) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (52%), projected 120–120, ~240 total at 100.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.1 | 23.7 | 25 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 14% | Under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 33.2 | 36 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.7 | 28.9 | 31.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.2 | 28 | 29 | 41% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Pascal Siakam draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.1 vs season). Model lines Siakam at 23.7 pts (range 20.1–27.3) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (52%), projected 120–120, ~240 total at 100.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.4 | 17.8 | 19.5 | 28% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | 30% | Under |
| Assists | 9 | 8.4 | 9 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.4 | 28.5 | 31.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 22.4 | 20.1 | 22.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 26.2 | 28.5 | 29% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Andrew Nembhard draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.4 vs season). Model lines Nembhard at 17.8 pts (range 15.1–20.5) vs a 19.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (28%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (52%), projected 120–120, ~240 total at 100.6 pace.