Matchup model · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.4 | 19 | 18.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 30% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.8 | 23.3 | 23 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 20.8 | 20.9 | 21 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 20.4 | 21.4 | 20.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Zach LaVine draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
Model lines LaVine at 19 pts (range 16.1–21.9) vs a 18.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (70%), projected 116–121, ~237 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.1 | 17.4 | 18 | 41% | Under |
| Rebounds | 13 | 10.1 | 13 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 5.9 | 5.2 | 6 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 32.7 | 37 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.1 | 27.4 | 31 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24 | 22.6 | 24 | 35% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Domantas Sabonis draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Al Horford (strong defender, 80 Rim protection), Kristaps Porzingis secondary, with De'Anthony Melton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 12.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.3 vs season). Model lines Sabonis at 17.4 pts (range 14.7–20.1) vs a 18 line — an uphill case to clear it (41%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (70%), projected 116–121, ~237 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 30% | Under |
| Assists | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.9 | 31.3 | 32 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27 | 26.4 | 27 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 28.4 | 28 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Stephen Curry draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 19.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.1 vs season). Model lines Curry at 23.5 pts (range 19.9–27.1) vs a 23.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (70%), projected 121–116, ~237 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.1 | 18.9 | 18 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.7 | 27.4 | 27.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 23.2 | 22.9 | 23 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 22.6 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jimmy Butler draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
Model lines Butler at 18.9 pts (range 16–21.8) vs a 18 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (70%), projected 121–116, ~237 total at 98.8 pace.