Matchup model · Monday, October 12, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 36.2 | 35.1 | 36 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.4 | 46 | 48.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 38.5 | 40.5 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 44 | 42.6 | 44 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 28.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 35.1 pts (range 29.7–40.5) vs a 36 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (52%), projected 117–118, ~235 total at 100.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 21.7 | 22 | 46% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 32.1 | 33.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 25.6 | 27.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 28.1 | 28.5 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Williams draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Onyeka Okongwu as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.4 vs season). Model lines Williams at 21.7 pts (range 18.3–25) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (46%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (52%), projected 117–118, ~235 total at 100.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.9 | 24.8 | 27 | 30% | Under |
| Rebounds | 11.6 | 9 | 11.5 | 10% | Under |
| Assists | 9.5 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 24% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48 | 41.9 | 48 | 15% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 38.5 | 33.8 | 38.5 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 36.4 | 32.9 | 36.5 | 25% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Johnson draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 18 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.9 vs season). Model lines Johnson at 24.8 pts (range 21–28.6) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (30%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (52%), projected 118–117, ~235 total at 100.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.9 | 22.6 | 25 | 27% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.9 | 29.6 | 33 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.7 | 25.5 | 28.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.1 | 26.6 | 29 | 29% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.7 vs season). Model lines Alexander-Walker at 22.6 pts (range 19.1–26) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (27%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors Atlanta Hawks (52%), projected 118–117, ~235 total at 100.4 pace.