Matchup model · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.9 | 26 | 27 | 41% | Under |
| Rebounds | 11.6 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 9.5 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48 | 43.5 | 48 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 38.5 | 35.2 | 38.5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 36.4 | 34.3 | 36.5 | 34% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Johnson draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Dereck Lively II as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 18 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.9 vs season). Model lines Johnson at 26 pts (range 22–30) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (41%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (56%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 100.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.9 | 23.7 | 25 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.9 | 30.8 | 33 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.7 | 26.7 | 28.5 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.1 | 27.8 | 29 | 40% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Dereck Lively II as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.7 vs season). Model lines Alexander-Walker at 23.7 pts (range 20.1–27.3) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (56%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 100.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.4 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 39% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 23% | Under |
| Assists | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.3 | 30.5 | 32.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28 | 26.1 | 28 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.7 | 26.9 | 27.5 | 44% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Kyrie Irving draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Jock Landale as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.2 vs season). Model lines Irving at 22.5 pts (range 19–25.9) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (39%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (56%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 100.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 19 | 21 | 27% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.2 | 28.4 | 32 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.7 | 24.3 | 27.5 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.5 | 23.2 | 25.5 | 26% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Cooper Flagg draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Jock Landale as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11 pts a night over his last 5 (-10 vs season). Model lines Flagg at 19 pts (range 16.1–21.9) vs a 21 line — an uphill case to clear it (27%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (56%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 100.9 pace.