Matchup model · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.9 | 27 | 30 | 25% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.3 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 7% | Under |
| Assists | 8.4 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.6 | 39.8 | 45.5 | 15% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.2 | 32.6 | 37 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 38.3 | 34.1 | 38.5 | 21% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Deni Avdija draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-15.5 vs season). Model lines Avdija at 27 pts (range 22.8–31.1) vs a 30 line — an uphill case to clear it (25%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (54%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.7 | 22.9 | 22.5 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.8 | 33.1 | 34 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 26.3 | 27 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.4 | 29.7 | 29.5 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Damian Lillard draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.5 vs season). Model lines Lillard at 22.9 pts (range 19.4–26.4) vs a 22.5 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (54%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 23 | 23.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 30% | Under |
| Assists | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.9 | 30.7 | 32 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27 | 25.9 | 27 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 27.8 | 28 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Stephen Curry draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 19.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.1 vs season). Model lines Curry at 23 pts (range 19.5–26.5) vs a 23.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (54%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.1 | 18.5 | 18 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.7 | 27 | 27.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 23.2 | 22.5 | 23 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 22.6 | 23 | 22.5 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jimmy Butler draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
Model lines Butler at 18.5 pts (range 15.7–21.3) vs a 18 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Golden State Warriors (54%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.3 pace.